IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormksc/v24y2005i3p430-443.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Promotion Effect on Endogenous Consumption

Author

Listed:
  • Baohong Sun

    (Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213)

Abstract

Over the years, researchers have found that promotion makes consumers switch brands and purchase earlier or more. However, it is unclear how promotion affects consumption, especially for product categories that are perceived to be versatile and substitutable. In this paper, we propose a dynamic structural model with endogenous consumption under promotion uncertainty to analyze the promotion effect on consumption. This model recognizes consumers as rational decision makers who form promotion expectations and plan their purchase and consumption decisions in light of promotion schedule. Applying the proposed model to packaged tuna and yogurt, we find that endogenous consumption responds to promotion as a result of forward-looking and stockpiling behavior. This is the first empirical paper that recognizes consumption as an endogenous decision variable and proposes a structural model to offer behavioral explanations on whether, how, and why promotion encourages consumption for product categories with flexible consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Baohong Sun, 2005. "Promotion Effect on Endogenous Consumption," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(3), pages 430-443, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:24:y:2005:i:3:p:430-443
    DOI: 10.1287/mksc.1040.0110
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1040.0110
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mksc.1040.0110?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter M. Guadagni & John D. C. Little, 1983. "A Logit Model of Brand Choice Calibrated on Scanner Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 2(3), pages 203-238.
    2. Jeongwen Chiang, 1991. "A Simultaneous Approach to the Whether, What and How Much to Buy Questions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 297-315.
    3. Aradhna Krishna, 1992. "The Normative Impact of Consumer Price Expectations for Multiple Brands on Consumer Purchase Behavior," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 11(3), pages 266-286.
    4. Folkes, Valerie S & Martin, Ingrid M & Gupta, Kamal, 1993. "When to Say When: Effects of Supply on Usage," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 20(3), pages 467-477, December.
    5. Ruth N. Bolton, 1989. "The Relationship Between Market Characteristics and Promotional Price Elasticities," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 8(2), pages 153-169.
    6. Keane, Michael, 1993. "Simulation estimation for panel data models with limited dependent variables," MPRA Paper 53029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Tülin Erdem & Susumu Imai & Michael Keane, 2003. "Brand and Quantity Choice Dynamics Under Price Uncertainty," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 5-64, March.
    8. Rosen, Sherwin, 2007. "Studies in Labor Markets," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226726304.
    9. Harald J. van Heerde & Peter S. H. Leeflang & Dick R. Wittink, 2004. "Decomposing the Sales Promotion Bump with Store Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(3), pages 317-334, December.
    10. Robert C. Blattberg & Richard Briesch & Edward J. Fox, 1995. "How Promotions Work," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(3_supplem), pages 122-132.
    11. repec:ucp:bknber:9780226726281 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Sherwin Rosen, 1981. "Introduction to "Studies in Labor Markets"," NBER Chapters, in: Studies in Labor Markets, pages 1-20, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Jagmohan S. Raju & V. Srinivasan & Rajiv Lal, 1990. "The Effects of Brand Loyalty on Competitive Price Promotional Strategies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(3), pages 276-304, March.
    14. J. Miguel Villas-Boas, 2004. "Consumer Learning, Brand Loyalty, and Competition," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(1), pages 134-145, December.
    15. João L. Assunção & Robert J. Meyer, 1993. "The Rational Effect of Price Promotions on Sales and Consumption," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(5), pages 517-535, May.
    16. Richard Paap & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "A dynamic multinomial probit model for brand choice with different long-run and short-run effects of marketing-mix variables," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 717-744.
    17. Aradhna Krishna, 1994. "The Impact of Dealing Patterns on Purchase Behavior," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(4), pages 351-373.
    18. Narasimhan, Chakravarthi, 1988. "Competitive Promotional Strategies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(4), pages 427-449, October.
    19. William R. Dillon & Sunil Gupta, 1996. "A Segment-Level Model of Category Volume and Brand Choice," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(1), pages 38-59.
    20. Koen Pauwels & Shuba Srinivasan, 2004. "Who Benefits from Store Brand Entry?," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(3), pages 364-390, July.
    21. Teck-Hua Ho & Christopher S. Tang & David R. Bell, 1998. "Rational Shopping Behavior and the Option Value of Variable Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(12-Part-2), pages 145-160, December.
    22. G. Dekimpe, Marnik & Hanssens, Dominique M. & Silva-Risso, Jorge M., 1998. "Long-run effects of price promotions in scanner markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 269-291, November.
    23. Scott A. Neslin & Caroline Henderson & John Quelch, 1985. "Consumer Promotions and the Acceleration of Product Purchases," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 4(2), pages 147-165.
    24. Greg M. Allenby & Peter E. Rossi, 1991. "Quality Perceptions and Asymmetric Switching Between Brands," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(3), pages 185-204.
    25. Winer, Russell S, 1986. "A Reference Price Model of Brand Choice for Frequently Purchased Products," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 13(2), pages 250-256, September.
    26. Jeongwen Chiang, 1995. "Competing Coupon Promotions and Category Sales," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(1), pages 105-122.
    27. Robert J. Meyer & João Assunção, 1990. "The Optimality of Consumer Stockpiling Strategies," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(1), pages 18-41.
    28. Vincent R. Nijs & Marnik G. Dekimpe & Jan-Benedict E.M. Steenkamps & Dominique M. Hanssens, 2001. "The Category-Demand Effects of Price Promotions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 1-22, September.
    29. James J. Heckman, 1981. "Heterogeneity and State Dependence," NBER Chapters, in: Studies in Labor Markets, pages 91-140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Kamal Golabi, 1985. "Optimal Inventory Policies When Ordering Prices are Random," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(3), pages 575-588, June.
    31. Füsun Gönül & Kannan Srinivasan, 1996. "Estimating the Impact of Consumer Expectations of Coupons on Purchase Behavior: A Dynamic Structural Model," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(3), pages 262-279.
    32. Pradeep K. Chintagunta, 1993. "Investigating Purchase Incidence, Brand Choice and Purchase Quantity Decisions of Households," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(2), pages 184-208.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David R. Bell & Jeongwen Chiang & V. Padmanabhan, 1999. "The Decomposition of Promotional Response: An Empirical Generalization," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(4), pages 504-526.
    2. Marshall Freimer & Dan Horsky, 2008. "Try It, You Will Like It—Does Consumer Learning Lead to Competitive Price Promotions?," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(5), pages 796-810, 09-10.
    3. Pradeep Chintagunta & Tülin Erdem & Peter E. Rossi & Michel Wedel, 2006. "Structural Modeling in Marketing: Review and Assessment," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 604-616, 11-12.
    4. Zhang, Qin & Seetharaman, P.B. & Narasimhan, Chakravarthi, 2012. "The Indirect Impact of Price Deals on Households’ Purchase Decisions Through the Formation of Expected Future Prices," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 88-101.
    5. Michael P. Keane, 2013. "Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand," Economics Papers 2013-W08, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    6. Greg M. Allenby & Thomas S. Shively & Sha Yang & Mark J. Garratt, 2004. "A Choice Model for Packaged Goods: Dealing with Discrete Quantities and Quantity Discounts," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(1), pages 95-108, June.
    7. Raju, Jagmohan S., 1995. "Theoretical models of sales promotions: Contributions, limitations, and a future research agenda," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 1-17, August.
    8. Harald J. van Heerde & Peter S. H. Leeflang & Dick R. Wittink, 2004. "Decomposing the Sales Promotion Bump with Store Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(3), pages 317-334, December.
    9. Jean-Pierre H. Dubé, 2018. "Microeconometric Models of Consumer Demand," NBER Working Papers 25215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Alam Kazmi, Syed Hasnain, 2015. "Developments in Promotion Strategies Review on Psychological Streams of Consumers," MPRA Paper 65424, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 May 2015.
    11. David Bell & Christian Hilber, 2006. "An empirical test of the Theory of Sales: Do household storage constraints affect consumer and store behavior?," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 87-117, June.
    12. Tülin Erdem & Susumu Imai & Michael Keane, 2003. "Brand and Quantity Choice Dynamics Under Price Uncertainty," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 5-64, March.
    13. Gázquez-Abad, Juan Carlos & Martínez-López, Francisco J., 2016. "Understanding the impact of store flyers on purchase behaviour: An empirical analysis in the context of Spanish households," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 263-273.
    14. Harikesh Nair & Jean-Pierre Dubé & Pradeep Chintagunta, 2005. "Accounting for Primary and Secondary Demand Effects with Aggregate Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(3), pages 444-460, November.
    15. Kazuko Kano, 2018. "Consumer Inventory and Demand for Storable Goods: New Evidence from a Consumer Survey," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 284-305, September.
    16. Minjung Kwon & Tülin Erdem & Masakazu Ishihara, 2023. "Counter-cyclical price promotion: Capturing seasonal changes in stockpiling and endogenous consumption," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 437-492, December.
    17. Boztuğ, Yasemin & Bell, David R., 2004. "The Effect of Inventory on Purchase Incidence: Empirical Analysis of Opposing Forces of Storage and Consumption," Papers 2004,43, Humboldt University of Berlin, Center for Applied Statistics and Economics (CASE).
    18. Allender, William J. & Richards, Timothy J., 2009. "Measures of Brand Loyalty," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49536, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. David Bell & Yasemin Boztuğ, 2007. "The positive and negative effects of inventory on category purchase: An empirical analysis," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-14, June.
    20. J. Miguel Villas-Boas & Russell S. Winer, 1999. "Endogeneity in Brand Choice Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(10), pages 1324-1338, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:24:y:2005:i:3:p:430-443. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.