IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/orinte/v45y2015i5p375-390.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Identifying Risks and Mitigating Disruptions in the Automotive Supply Chain

Author

Listed:
  • David Simchi-Levi

    (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, and the Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139)

  • William Schmidt

    (Samuel Curtis Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853)

  • Yehua Wei

    (The Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708)

  • Peter Yun Zhang

    (Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139)

  • Keith Combs

    (Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan 48126)

  • Yao Ge

    (Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan 48126)

  • Oleg Gusikhin

    (Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan 48126)

  • Michael Sanders

    (Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan 48126)

  • Don Zhang

    (Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan 48126)

Abstract

Firms are exposed to a variety of low-probability, high-impact risks that can disrupt their operations and supply chains. These risks are difficult to predict and quantify; therefore, they are difficult to manage. As a result, managers may suboptimally deploy countermeasures, leaving their firms exposed to some risks, while wasting resources to mitigate other risks that would not cause significant damage. In a three-year research engagement with Ford Motor Company, we addressed this practical need by developing a novel risk-exposure model that assesses the impact of a disruption originating anywhere in a firm’s supply chain. Our approach defers the need for a company to estimate the probability associated with any specific disruption risk until after it has learned the effect such a disruption will have on its operations. As a result, the company can make more informed decisions about where to focus its limited risk-management resources. We demonstrate how Ford applied this model to identify previously unrecognized risk exposures, evaluate predisruption risk-mitigation actions, and develop optimal postdisruption contingency plans, including circumstances in which the duration of the disruption is unknown.

Suggested Citation

  • David Simchi-Levi & William Schmidt & Yehua Wei & Peter Yun Zhang & Keith Combs & Yao Ge & Oleg Gusikhin & Michael Sanders & Don Zhang, 2015. "Identifying Risks and Mitigating Disruptions in the Automotive Supply Chain," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 45(5), pages 375-390, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:45:y:2015:i:5:p:375-390
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.2015.0804
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/inte.2015.0804
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/inte.2015.0804?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. ManMohan S. Sodhi & Christopher S. Tang, 2012. "Supply Chain Risk Management," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Managing Supply Chain Risk, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 3-11, Springer.
    2. Allan R. Sampson & Robert L. Smith, 1982. "Assessing Risks Through the Determination of Rare Event Probabilities," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 30(5), pages 839-866, October.
    3. Brian Tomlin, 2006. "On the Value of Mitigation and Contingency Strategies for Managing Supply Chain Disruption Risks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(5), pages 639-657, May.
    4. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Johnson, Eric J & Hershey, John & Meszaros, Jacqueline & Kunreuther, Howard, 1993. "Framing, Probability Distortions, and Insurance Decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 35-51, August.
    6. Peng, Peng & Snyder, Lawrence V. & Lim, Andrew & Liu, Zuli, 2011. "Reliable logistics networks design with facility disruptions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1190-1211, September.
    7. Sunil Chopra & Gilles Reinhardt & Usha Mohan, 2007. "The importance of decoupling recurrent and disruption risks in a supply chain," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(5), pages 544-555, August.
    8. Kevin B. Hendricks & Vinod R. Singhal, 2005. "Association Between Supply Chain Glitches and Operating Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(5), pages 695-711, May.
    9. Yossi Sheffi, 2005. "The Resilient Enterprise: Overcoming Vulnerability for Competitive Advantage," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262693496, April.
    10. Oleg Gusikhin & Erica Klampfl, 2012. "JEDI: Just-in-Time Execution and Distribution Information Support System for Automotive Stamping Operations," Springer Books, in: Dieter Armbruster & Karl G. Kempf (ed.), Decision Policies for Production Networks, edition 127, pages 119-142, Springer.
    11. Schmitt, Amanda J., 2011. "Strategies for customer service level protection under multi-echelon supply chain disruption risk," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1266-1283, September.
    12. James G. March & Zur Shapira, 1987. "Managerial Perspectives on Risk and Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(11), pages 1404-1418, November.
    13. Brian Tomlin, 2009. "Impact of Supply Learning When Suppliers Are Unreliable," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 11(2), pages 192-209, August.
    14. Marshall Fisher & Janice Hammond & Walter Obermeyer & Ananth Raman, 1997. "Configuring A Supply Chain To Reduce The Cost Of Demand Uncertainty," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 6(3), pages 211-225, September.
    15. Ho-Yin Mak & Zuo-Jun Shen, 2012. "Risk diversification and risk pooling in supply chain design," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(8), pages 603-621.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Heckmann, Iris & Comes, Tina & Nickel, Stefan, 2015. "A critical review on supply chain risk – Definition, measure and modeling," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 119-132.
    2. Mishra, Deepa & Sharma, R.R.K. & Kumar, Sameer & Dubey, Rameshwar, 2016. "Bridging and buffering: Strategies for mitigating supply risk and improving supply chain performance," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 183-197.
    3. Bendul, Julia C. & Skorna, Alexander C.H., 2016. "Exploring impact factors of shippers’ risk prevention activities: A European survey in transportation," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 206-223.
    4. Parajuli, Anubhuti & Kuzgunkaya, Onur & Vidyarthi, Navneet, 2017. "Responsive contingency planning of capacitated supply networks under disruption risks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 13-37.
    5. Rezapour, Shabnam & Srinivasan, Ramakrishnan & Tew, Jeffrey & Allen, Janet K. & Mistree, Farrokh, 2018. "Correlation between strategic and operational risk mitigation strategies in supply networks," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 225-248.
    6. Qi, Lian & Lee, Kangbok, 2015. "Supply chain risk mitigations with expedited shipping," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 57(PA), pages 98-113.
    7. Ivanov, Dmitry & Sokolov, Boris, 2013. "Control and system-theoretic identification of the supply chain dynamics domain for planning, analysis and adaptation of performance under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 224(2), pages 313-323.
    8. Long He & Ying Rong & Zuo‐Jun Max Shen, 2020. "Product Sourcing and Distribution Strategies under Supply Disruption and Recall Risks," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(1), pages 9-23, January.
    9. Svoboda, Josef & Minner, Stefan & Yao, Man, 2021. "Typology and literature review on multiple supplier inventory control models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(1), pages 1-23.
    10. El Baz, Jamal & Ruel, Salomée, 2021. "Can supply chain risk management practices mitigate the disruption impacts on supply chains’ resilience and robustness? Evidence from an empirical survey in a COVID-19 outbreak era," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    11. Nader Azad & Elkafi Hassini, 2019. "A Benders Decomposition Method for Designing Reliable Supply Chain Networks Accounting for Multimitigation Strategies and Demand Losses," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(5), pages 1287-1312, September.
    12. Lu Huang & Jing-Sheng Song & Jordan Tong, 2016. "Supply Chain Planning for Random Demand Surges: Reactive Capacity and Safety Stock," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 18(4), pages 509-524, October.
    13. Nader Azad & Georgios Saharidis & Hamid Davoudpour & Hooman Malekly & Seyed Yektamaram, 2013. "Strategies for protecting supply chain networks against facility and transportation disruptions: an improved Benders decomposition approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 210(1), pages 125-163, November.
    14. Mohammaddust, Faeghe & Rezapour, Shabnam & Farahani, Reza Zanjirani & Mofidfar, Mohammad & Hill, Alex, 2017. "Developing lean and responsive supply chains: A robust model for alternative risk mitigation strategies in supply chain designs," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(PC), pages 632-653.
    15. Manel Baucells & Cristina Rata, 2006. "A Survey Study of Factors Influencing Risk-Taking Behavior in Real-World Decisions Under Uncertainty," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(3), pages 163-176, September.
    16. Gupta, Varun & Ivanov, Dmitry & Choi, Tsan-Ming, 2021. "Competitive pricing of substitute products under supply disruption," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    17. Garvey, Myles D. & Carnovale, Steven & Yeniyurt, Sengun, 2015. "An analytical framework for supply network risk propagation: A Bayesian network approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(2), pages 618-627.
    18. Dubey, Vivek Kumar & Chavas, Jean-Paul & Veeramani, Dharmaraj, 2018. "Analytical framework for sustainable supply-chain contract management," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 240-261.
    19. Xiao Huang & Tamer Boyacı & Mehmet Gümüş & Saibal Ray & Dan Zhang, 2016. "United We Stand or Divided We Stand? Strategic Supplier Alliances Under Order Default Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(5), pages 1297-1315, May.
    20. Sherwin, Michael D. & Medal, Hugh & Lapp, Steven A., 2016. "Proactive cost-effective identification and mitigation of supply delay risks in a low volume high value supply chain using fault-tree analysis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 153-163.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:45:y:2015:i:5:p:375-390. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.