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Tactical Prevention of Suicide Bombings in Israel

Author

Listed:
  • Edward H. Kaplan

    (Yale School of Management; Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale School of Medicine; Yale Faculty of Engineering, Box 208200, New Haven, Connecticut 06520-8200)

  • Alex Mintz

    (IDC--Herzliya; Department of Political Science, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843-4348)

  • Shaul Mishal

    (Department of Political Science, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 68878, Israel)

Abstract

Suicide bombings are the leading cause of death from terrorism in Israel. Counterterror tactics, such as the targeted killings or preemptive arrests of terror leaders or suspects, are meant to prevent such attacks. To investigate whether these tactics are successful, we estimated via maximum likelihood a family of shot-noise models from monthly data covering 2001 through 2003 to see whether we could predict the rate of suicide-bombing attacks as a function of prevention tactics over time. Although preventive arrests appear to lower the rate of suicide-bombing attacks, targeted killings seem to be followed by an increase in the number of suicide bombings. In addition, limited evidence suggests that the probability of intercepting a suicide bomber en route to an attack increases with the expected number of suicide-bombing attacks. Such an endogenous relationship could imply an upper limit on the rate of successful suicide bombings.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward H. Kaplan & Alex Mintz & Shaul Mishal, 2006. "Tactical Prevention of Suicide Bombings in Israel," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 553-561, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:36:y:2006:i:6:p:553-561
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.1060.0242
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Keohane, Nathaniel O & Zeckhauser, Richard J, 2003. "The Ecology of Terror Defense," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 201-229, March-May.
    2. Pape, Robert A., 2003. "The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(3), pages 343-361, August.
    3. Scott Atran, 2003. "Genesis of Suicide Terrorm (supporting online material)," Post-Print ijn_00000344, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giorgio Gallo, 2013. "Conflict Theory, Complexity and Systems Approach," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 156-175, March.
    2. Hamid Mohtadi, 2017. "Risk‐Mitigating Policies and Adversarial Behavior: Case of Backlash," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 459-470, March.
    3. Valentina Bartolucci & Giorgio Gallo, 2015. "Terrorism, System Thinking and Critical Discourse Analysis," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 15-27, January.
    4. Edward H. Kaplan, 2010. "Terror Queues," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(4-part-1), pages 773-784, August.
    5. Daniel Jacobson & Edward H. Kaplan, 2007. "Suicide Bombings and Targeted Killings in (Counter-) Terror Games," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(5), pages 772-792, October.

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