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The Ombudsman: Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960--1984

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  • J. Scott Armstrong

    (Department of Marketing, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

Abstract

Before 1960, little empirical research was done on forecasting methods. Since then, the literature has grown rapidly, especially in the area of judgmental forecasting. This research supports and adds to the forecasting guidelines proposed before 1960, such as the value of combining forecasts. New findings have led to significant gains in our ability to forecast and to help people to use forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Scott Armstrong, 1986. "The Ombudsman: Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960--1984," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 16(1), pages 89-109, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:16:y:1986:i:1:p:89-109
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.16.1.89
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    Cited by:

    1. Litsiou, Konstantia & Polychronakis, Yiannis & Karami, Azhdar & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2022. "Relative performance of judgmental methods for forecasting the success of megaprojects," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1185-1196.
    2. Marian Sorin IONESCU & Olivia NEGOITA, 2020. "Data Analysis, Fundamental Factor In The Elaboration Of The Top Organizational Managerial Decision," Proceedings of the INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 14(1), pages 677-687, November.
    3. Perera, H. Niles & Hurley, Jason & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen, 2019. "The human factor in supply chain forecasting: A systematic review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 574-600.
    4. Abolghasemi, Mahdi & Hurley, Jason & Eshragh, Ali & Fahimnia, Behnam, 2020. "Demand forecasting in the presence of systematic events: Cases in capturing sales promotions," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    5. Zvi Schwartz & Timothy Webb & Jean-Pierre I van der Rest & Larissa Koupriouchina, 2021. "Enhancing the accuracy of revenue management system forecasts: The impact of machine and human learning on the effectiveness of hotel occupancy forecast combinations across multiple forecasting horizo," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(2), pages 273-291, March.
    6. Arvan, Meysam & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen & Siemsen, Enno, 2019. "Integrating human judgement into quantitative forecasting methods: A review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 237-252.
    7. Marc Gruber & Claudia Venter, 2006. "„Die Kunst, die Zukunft zu erfinden“ — Theoretische Erkenntnisse und empirische Befunde zum Einsatz des Corporate Foresight in deutschen Großunternehmen," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 58(7), pages 958-984, November.
    8. Swaminathan, Kritika & Venkitasubramony, Rakesh, 2024. "Demand forecasting for fashion products: A systematic review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 247-267.

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    Keywords

    forecasting;

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