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On the Decision to Take a Pitch

Author

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  • J. Eric Bickel

    (Operations Research/Industrial Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78712)

Abstract

Baseball is a highly strategic game, with decisions being made almost continuously. In this paper, we analyze the decision to have the batter take a pitch, which means that he does not swing at the pitch under any circumstances---even if it is easily hittable. Why would a batter do this? Using decision-theoretic reasoning, we determine under what circumstances such a decision is good. We find that in some cases, taking pitches deterministically dominates not taking.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Eric Bickel, 2009. "On the Decision to Take a Pitch," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 186-193, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:6:y:2009:i:3:p:186-193
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.1090.0145
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Virgil Carter & Robert E. Machol, 1978. "Note--Optimal Strategies on Fourth Down," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(16), pages 1758-1762, December.
    2. George R. Lindsey, 1963. "An Investigation of Strategies in Baseball," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 11(4), pages 477-501, August.
    3. Virgil Carter & Robert E. Machol, 1971. "Technical Note—Operations Research on Football," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 19(2), pages 541-544, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. L. Robin Keller & Ali Abbas & J. Eric Bickel & Vicki M. Bier & David V. Budescu & John C. Butler & Enrico Diecidue & Robin L. Dillon-Merrill & Raimo P. Hämäläinen & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Jason R. W, 2012. "From the Editors ---Brainstorming, Multiplicative Utilities, Partial Information on Probabilities or Outcomes, and Regulatory Focus," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 297-302, December.
    2. L. Robin Keller & Ali Abbas & Manel Baucells & Vicki M. Bier & David Budescu & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Ahti Salo & George Wu, 2010. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(4), pages 327-330, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & Kevin F. McCardle & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2007. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(4), pages 173-175, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2008. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 173-176, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2009. "From the Editors ..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(4), pages 199-201, December.
    3. Rakesh K. Sarin & L. Robin Keller, 2013. "From the Editors: Probability Approximations, Anti-Terrorism Strategy, and Bull's-Eye Display for Performance Feedback," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 1-5, March.
    4. Elitzur, Ramy, 2020. "Data analytics effects in major league baseball," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    5. L. Robin Keller, 2011. "Investment and Defense Strategies, Heuristics, and Games: From the Editor ..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 1-3, March.
    6. L. Robin Keller, 2009. "From the Editor..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 121-123, September.

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