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Using a Markov decision process to model the value of the sacrifice bunt

Author

Listed:
  • Hirotsu Nobuyoshi

    (Juntendo University, Inzai, Chiba, Japan)

  • Bickel J. Eric

    (University of Texas at Austin, Operations Research and Industrial Engineering, Austin, TX, USA)

Abstract

We use a Markov decision process to model the value of the sacrifice bunt. Specifically, we consider a nine-inning baseball game with non-identical batters and compute the degree to which sacrificing increases the probability of winning the game. We populate our model using data covering the National League of Major League Baseball, and demonstrate the importance of using the probability of winning the game when analyzing the value of the sacrifice bunt. We show how and why the criterion of maximizing the probability of winning is superior to that of maximizing the expected number of runs scored or the probability of scoring at least one run in the half inning. Our model enables us to investigate situations that are not possible to investigate using earlier models, and find that the sacrifice bunt is more beneficial than previously thought. We also discuss the effect sizes of individual sacrifice bunts, and the effect of model simplifications on runner advancement or ignoring double plays.

Suggested Citation

  • Hirotsu Nobuyoshi & Bickel J. Eric, 2019. "Using a Markov decision process to model the value of the sacrifice bunt," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 327-344, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:15:y:2019:i:4:p:327-344:n:2
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2017-0092
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joel S. Sokol, 2004. "An Intuitive Markov Chain Lesson From Baseball," INFORMS Transactions on Education, INFORMS, vol. 5(1), pages 47-55, September.
    2. George R. Lindsey, 1963. "An Investigation of Strategies in Baseball," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 11(4), pages 477-501, August.
    3. J. Eric Bickel, 2004. "Teaching Decision Making with Baseball Examples," INFORMS Transactions on Education, INFORMS, vol. 5(1), pages 2-9, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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