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Making Better Decision Makers

Author

Listed:
  • Ralph L. Keeney

    (The Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708-0120)

Abstract

Decision analysis has been used to help solve numerous complex decisions over the last few decades. However, its power as a basis for structuring one's thinking to resolve decisions has barely been tapped. To realize this potential, we in the decision analysis community must train people to think about their decisions using the concepts and principles of decision analysis. In this process, more emphasis must be placed on structuring decisions worth thinking about, and less emphasis must be placed on analyzing structured decisions. This paper outlines what we should do to train people to be better decision makers and why this is important. It includes a description of what we must learn to do this effectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Ralph L. Keeney, 2004. "Making Better Decision Makers," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(4), pages 193-204, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:1:y:2004:i:4:p:193-204
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.1040.0009
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert T. Clemen & Robert C. Kwit, 2001. "The Value of Decision Analysis at Eastman Kodak Company, 1990-1999," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 31(5), pages 74-92, October.
    2. Detlof von Winterfeldt & Eric Schweitzer, 1998. "An Assessment of Tritium Supply Alternatives in Support of the US Nuclear Weapons Stockpile," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 28(1), pages 92-112, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Auriel M. V. Fournier & R. Randy Wilson & Jeffrey S. Gleason & Evan M. Adams & Janell M. Brush & Robert J. Cooper & Stephen J. DeMaso & Melanie J. L. Driscoll & Peter C. Frederick & Patrick G. R. Jodi, 2023. "Structured Decision Making to Prioritize Regional Bird Monitoring Needs," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 53(3), pages 207-217, May.
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    3. Mark W. Maier, 2019. "Architecting a portfolio of systems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(4), pages 335-347, July.
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    5. L. Robin Keller, 2007. "From the Editor..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(3), pages 111-113, September.
    6. repec:cup:judgdm:v:4:y:2009:i:2:p:147-153 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Erin J. Belval & Matthew P. Thompson, 2023. "A Decision Framework for Evaluating the Rocky Mountain Area Wildfire Dispatching System in Colorado," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 20(4), pages 276-294, December.
    8. L. Robin Keller, 2010. "From the Editor..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(3), pages 235-237, September.
    9. Jeffrey M. Keisler & Patrick S. Noonan, 2012. "Communicating Analytic Results: A Tutorial for Decision Consultants," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 274-292, September.
    10. L. Robin Keller & Ali Abbas & J. Eric Bickel & Vicki M. Bier & David V. Budescu & John C. Butler & Enrico Diecidue & Robin L. Dillon-Merrill & Raimo P. Hämäläinen & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Jason R. W, 2012. "From the Editors ---Brainstorming, Multiplicative Utilities, Partial Information on Probabilities or Outcomes, and Regulatory Focus," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 297-302, December.
    11. Don P. Clausing & Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos, 2008. "Rationality in systems engineering: Beyond calculation or political action," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(4), pages 309-328, December.
    12. Cairns, George & Goodwin, Paul & Wright, George, 2016. "A decision-analysis-based framework for analysing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 1050-1062.
    13. M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell & Robin L. Dillon, 2006. "The Respective Roles of Risk and Decision Analyses in Decision Support," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(4), pages 220-232, December.
    14. Jay Simon & Francois Melese, 2011. "A Multiattribute Sealed-Bid Procurement Auction with Multiple Budgets for Government Vendor Selection," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(3), pages 170-179, September.
    15. Ana Sofia Morais & Wasilios Hariskos, 2018. "Academic coaching and decision analysis: Ways of deciding whether to pursue an academic career," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-18, November.
    16. Roberto Ley-Borrás, 2015. "Deciding on the Decision Situation to Analyze: The Critical First Step of a Decision Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 12(1), pages 46-58, March.
    17. Leif Sundberg & Aron Larsson, 2017. "The Impact of Formal Decision Processes on e-Government Projects," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-12, May.
    18. Siebert, Johannes Ulrich & Kunz, Reinhard E. & Rolf, Philipp, 2021. "Effects of decision training on individuals’ decision-making proactivity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(1), pages 264-282.
    19. Fred A. Johnson & Mitchell J. Eaton & James H. Williams & Gitte H. Jensen & Jesper Madsen, 2015. "Training Conservation Practitioners to be Better Decision Makers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(7), pages 1-20, June.
    20. Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos, 2009. "Coherence and correspondence in engineering design: informing the conversation and connecting with judgment and decision-making research," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 4(2), pages 147-153, March.

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