IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ine/journl/v52y2021i61p33-49.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimation and model selection in the case of time series. Application on natural gas production

Author

Listed:
  • Victor Platon

    (Institute of National Economy – Romanian Academy)

  • Andreea Constantinescu

    (Institute of National Economy – Romanian Academy)

  • Sorina Jurist

    (Institute of National Economy – Romanian Academy)

Abstract

In 2021, natural gas price, extraction and distribution across EU became a key theme. The evolution of prices and quantities delivered are in the middle of a heated debate. On the one hand, there is a clear descending trend and, on the other hand, demand is up, pushing prices upward. In the last 10 years was noticed a steady decline in natural gas extracted both at EU level and in Romania. This tendency is typical for the new paradigm concerning energy policy oriented towards a cleaner power output. In these circumstances of prices volatility, it is useful to elaborate a consolidative model for natural gas production in Romania. One important advantage of this model would be to have a tool for better estimate of Romania's energy output. The methodology used several econometric models adapted to non-stationar time series suitable for natural gas production. By comparing the models, we end up selecting the most significant one, the one that showed improved forecast statistics. In this paper were envisaged several results: analysis of the volume of natural gas production; developing regression models for natural gas production in Romania; conclusions on most suitable econometric model for natural gas production in Romania.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Platon & Andreea Constantinescu & Sorina Jurist, 2021. "Estimation and model selection in the case of time series. Application on natural gas production," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 52(1(61)), pages 33-49, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ine:journl:v:52:y:2021:i:61:p:33-49
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.revecon.ro/articles/2021-1/2021-1-3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    2. Victor PLATON & Andreea TURDEANU, 2006. "The Sustainable Development In The Eu And Romania: Comparative Analysis," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 23(2(32)), pages 91-99, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hillebrand, Eric & Schnabl, Gunther & Ulu, Yasemin, 2009. "Japanese foreign exchange intervention and the yen-to-dollar exchange rate: A simultaneous equations approach using realized volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 490-505, July.
    2. Anikó Bíró, 2013. "Subjective mortality hazard shocks and the adjustment of consumption expenditures," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1379-1408, October.
    3. Zanini, Fabio C. & Irwin, Scott H. & Schnitkey, Gary D. & Sherrick, Bruce J., 2000. "Estimating Farm-Level Yield Distributions For Corn And Soybeans In Illinois," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21720, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Giuseppe Croce & Emanuela Ghignoni, 2011. "Overeducation and spatial flexibility in Italian local labour markets," Working Papers in Public Economics 145, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    5. Chasco, Coro & López, Ana María & Guillain, Rachel, 2008. "The non-stationary influence of geography on the spatial agglomeration of production in the EU," MPRA Paper 10737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Davidson, Russell & Flachaire, Emmanuel, 2007. "Asymptotic and bootstrap inference for inequality and poverty measures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 141-166, November.
    7. Darrian Collins & Clem Tisdell, 2004. "Outbound Business Travel Depends on Business Returns: Australian Evidence," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 192-207, June.
    8. Caginalp, Gunduz & DeSantis, Mark, 2017. "Does price efficiency increase with trading volume? Evidence of nonlinearity and power laws in ETFs," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 467(C), pages 436-452.
    9. Jongeneel, Roelof A. & Ge, Lan, 2005. "Explaining Growth in Dutch Agriculture: Prices, Public R&D, and Technological Change," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24573, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Dong, Yingying, 2010. "Jumpy or Kinky? Regression Discontinuity without the Discontinuity," MPRA Paper 25461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. PAUL CASHIN & C. JOHN McDERMOTT, 1998. "Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 346-361, December.
    12. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Consumer preferences and demand systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 210-224, December.
    13. Hany Eldemerdash & Hugh Metcalf & Sara Maioli, 2014. "Twin deficits: new evidence from a developing (oil vs. non-oil) countries’ perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 825-851, November.
    14. Rao, Surekha & Ghali, Moheb & Krieg, John, 2008. "On the J-test for nonnested hypotheses and Bayesian extension," MPRA Paper 14637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Agnes Quisumbing & Neha Kumar, 2011. "Does social capital build women's assets? The long-term impacts of group-based and individual dissemination of agricultural technology in Bangladesh," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 220-242.
    16. Glaser, Markus, 2003. "Online Broker Investors: Demographic Information, Investment Strategy, Portfolio Positions, and Trading Activity," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 03-18, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    17. Delis, Manthos & Savva, Christos & Theodossiou, Panayiotis, 2020. "A Coronavirus Asset Pricing Model: The Role of Skewness," MPRA Paper 100877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Giovanni Trovato & Marco Alfó, 2006. "Credit rationing and the financial structure of Italian small and medium enterprises," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 9, pages 167-184, May.
    19. Schimmelpfennig, Axel, 1998. "The celtic tiger faces the factor price frontier: Labour market adjustment in Ireland," Kiel Working Papers 855, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Saul Lach & Mark Schankerman, 2008. "Incentives and invention in universities," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 39(2), pages 403-433, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometric modelling; non-stationary time series; linear regression; autocorrelation of errors; AIC; Durbin – Watson statistic; natural gas production;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ine:journl:v:52:y:2021:i:61:p:33-49. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valentina Vasile (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.