IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/imx/journl/v14y2019i1p113-128.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Efectos de corto y largo plazo de los programas de condonación de créditos fiscales en la recaudación del Impuesto al Valor Agregado

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Moreno

    (Universidad Anáhuac México Norte)

  • Jaime H. Beltrán

    (Universidad Anáhuac México Norte)

  • Leovardo Mata

    (Universidad Anáhuac México Norte)

Abstract

El objetivo es determinar el impacto de corto y largo plazo de los programas de amnistía fiscal de 2007 y 2013 en la recaudación del IVA en México para el periodo 1980 - 2016. Para el análisis se utilizó un modelo ARIMA multivariado. Los resultados muestran que los programas de condonación de créditos fiscales no afectaron la recaudación del IVA en el largo plazo, el efecto predominante muestra un cambio de nivel con ajuste de corto plazo. Se recomienda no utilizar estos programas con fines recaudatorios, ya que no generan efectos en el largo plazo y tampoco benefician al cumplimiento voluntario. Para el análisis, fue necesario asegurar que se trabaja con series estacionarias y no correlacionadas. La originalidad radica en la metodología utilizada para determinar el impacto de los programas de amnistía fiscal promulgados por el gobierno de México para incrementar la recaudación pública. En consenso con la literatura, se confirma un efecto de corto plazo sobre el nivel de la recaudación del IVA y la ausencia de algún efecto de largo plazo.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Moreno & Jaime H. Beltrán & Leovardo Mata, 2019. "Efectos de corto y largo plazo de los programas de condonación de créditos fiscales en la recaudación del Impuesto al Valor Agregado," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(1), pages 113-128, Enero-Mar.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:14:y:2019:i:1:p:113-128
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/article/view/362
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mikesell, John L. & Ross, Justin M., 2012. "Fast Money? The Contribution of State Tax Amnesties to Public Revenue Systems," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 65(3), pages 529-562, September.
    2. Alm, James & Beck, William, 1993. "Tax Amnesties and Compliance in the Long Run: A Time Series Analysis," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 46(1), pages 53-60, March.
    3. Bayer, Ralph-C. & Oberhofer, Harald & Winner, Hannes, 2015. "The occurrence of tax amnesties: Theory and evidence," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 70-82.
    4. Andreoni, James, 1991. "The desirability of a permanent tax amnesty," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 143-159, July.
    5. Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974. "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-54, May.
    6. Miguel A. SANCHEZ VILLALBA, 2017. "On the effects of repeated tax amnesties," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 285-301, September.
    7. Elliot Uchitelle, 1989. "The effectiveness of tax amnesty programs in selected countries," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Aut), pages 48-53.
    8. Bayer, Ralph-C. & Oberhofer, Harald & Winner, Hannes, 2015. "The occurrence of tax amnesties: Theory and evidence," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 70-82.
    9. Marchese, Carla, 2014. "Tax Amnesties," IEL Working Papers 17, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
    10. James Alm & William Beck, 1990. "Tax Amnesties and Tax Revenues," Public Finance Review, , vol. 18(4), pages 433-453, October.
    11. Alm, James & Beck, William, 1993. "Tax Amnesties and Compliance in the Long Run: A Time Series Analysis," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 46(1), pages 53-60, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bayer, Ralph-C. & Oberhofer, Harald & Winner, Hannes, 2015. "The occurrence of tax amnesties: Theory and evidence," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 70-82.
    2. Osman Cenk Kanca & Metin Bayrak, 2024. "An Econometric Research on the Economic Effects of Tax Amnesties," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 14(4), pages 206-213, July.
    3. Koch, Christian & Müller, Cornelius, 2022. "Tax Amnesties and the Insurance Effect: An Experimental Study," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112991, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, revised 2022.
    4. Miguel A. SANCHEZ VILLALBA, 2017. "On the effects of repeated tax amnesties," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 285-301, September.
    5. Langenmayr, Dominika, 2017. "Voluntary disclosure of evaded taxes — Increasing revenue, or increasing incentives to evade?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 110-125.
    6. Bayer, Ralph-C. & Oberhofer, Harald & Winner, Hannes, 2015. "The occurrence of tax amnesties: Theory and evidence," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 70-82.
    7. Al-Karablieh, Yazan & Koumanakos, Evangelos & Stantcheva, Stefanie, 2021. "Clearing the bar: Improving tax compliance for small firms through target setting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    8. Hari Luitel & Mehmet Tosun, 2014. "A reexamination of state fiscal health and amnesty enactment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 21(5), pages 874-893, October.
    9. Patricia Gil & Justin E. Holz & John A. List & Andrew Simon & Alejandro Zentner, 2023. "Toward an Understanding of Tax Amnesties: Theory and Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment," NBER Working Papers 31210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Matthew Gould & Matthew D. Rablen, 2020. "Voluntary disclosure schemes for offshore tax evasion," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(4), pages 805-831, August.
    11. Justin M. Ross & Neal D. Buckwalter, 2013. "Strategic Tax Planning for State Tax Amnesties," Public Finance Review, , vol. 41(3), pages 275-301, May.
    12. Andrea Angeli & Patrizia Lattarulo & Eugenio Palmieri & Maria Grazia Pazienza, 2023. "Tax evasion and tax amnesties in regional taxation," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(1), pages 343-369, April.
    13. Eduardo Engel & James R. Hines Jr., 1998. "Understanding Tax Evasion Dynamics," Documentos de Trabajo 47, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    14. Norman Gemmell & Marisa Ratto, 2018. "The Effects of Penalty Information on Tax Compliance: Evidence from a New Zealand Field Experiment," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 71(3), pages 547-588, September.
    15. Lars Gläser & Martin Halla, 2008. "Die EU‐Zinsenrichtlinie: Ein Schuss in den Ofen?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 9(1), pages 83-101, February.
    16. Mr. Eric Le Borgne, 2006. "Economic and Political Determinants of Tax Amnesties in the U.S. States," IMF Working Papers 2006/222, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Azeem Mujahid & Danish Ahmed Siddiqui, 2019. "The Effect of Tax Amnesties Programs on Tax Collection and Economic Performance: A Global Macro Economic Analysis," International Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(2), pages 108-128, June.
    18. Sandro Momigliano & Pietro Rizza, 2007. "Temporary measures in Italy: buying or losing time?," MNB Conference Volume, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 1(1), pages 61-71, December.
    19. L. A. Franzoni, 1996. "Punishment and Grace: on the Economics of Permanent Amnesties," Working Papers 252, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    20. Terry Shevlin & Jacob Thornock & Braden Williams, 2017. "An examination of firms’ responses to tax forgiveness," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 577-607, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    amnistía; impuestos; recaudación; IVA; ARIMA multivariado;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:14:y:2019:i:1:p:113-128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ricardo Mendoza (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/index .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.