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Low Inflation, Deflation, and Policies for Future Price Stability

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  • Taylor, John-B

    (Stanford U)

Abstract

The effects of three different inflationary environments--high inflation, low inflation, and negative inflation--on real output stability are examined by looking at the experiences of Japan and the United States during the last 30 years. I begin by going back to see how things looked from the vantage point of the 1987 international conference at the Bank of Japan. Next I trace out how economic performance has evolved since then. Economic performance appears to have been better with low inflation than with either high inflation or negative inflation. I also look at some of the reasons for the different inflationary environments. I take both an interest rate policy rule approach and a quantity theory of money approach. Both approaches suggest that monetary policy has been the key factor in generating the different inflationary experiences.

Suggested Citation

  • Taylor, John-B, 2001. "Low Inflation, Deflation, and Policies for Future Price Stability," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 35-51, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:19:y:2001:i:s1:p:35-51
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Buiter, Willem, 2003. "Deflation: Prevention and Cure," CEPR Discussion Papers 3869, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Takatoshi Ito & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2006. "Two Decades of Japanese Monetary Policy and the Deflation Problem," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, pages 131-1997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hunter, John & Menla Ali, Faek, 2014. "Money demand instability and real exchange rate persistence in the monetary model of USD–JPY exchange rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 42-51.
    5. Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Posen, Adam S., 2004. "The difficulty of discerning what's too tight: Taylor rules and Japanese monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 53-74, March.
    6. Noritaka Kudoh, 2009. "A global analysis of liquidity effects, interest rate rules, and deflationary traps," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1492-1498.
    7. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2010. "The Fed's response to the financial crisis: Pages from the BOJ playbook, or a whole new ball game?," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 6(3), pages 407-430, March.
    8. Kamada, Koichiro, 2005. "Real-time estimation of the output gap in Japan and its usefulness for inflation forecasting and policymaking," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-332, December.
    9. James Harrigan & Kenneth Kuttner, 2004. "Lost Decade in Translation: Did the US Learn from Japan's Post-Bubble Mistakes?," NBER Working Papers 10938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    11. Kudoh, Noritaka, 2005. "Monetary policy arithmetic for a deflationary economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 161-167, May.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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