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Irreducibility and Structural Cointegrating Relations: An Application to the G-7 Long-Term Interest Rates

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  • Barassi, Marco R
  • Caporale, Guglielmo Maria
  • Hall, Stephen G

Abstract

In this paper we examine the causal linkages between the G-7 long-term interest rates by using a new technique, which enables the researcher to analyse relations between a set of I(1) series without imposing any identification conditions based on economic theory. Specifically, we apply the so-called Extended Davidson's Methodology (EDM), which is based on the innovative concept of an irreducible cointegrating (IC) vector, defined as a subset of a cointegrating relation that does not have any cointegrated subsets. Ranking the irreducible vectors according to the criterion of minimum variance allows us to distinguish between structural and solved relations. The empirical results provide support for the hypothesis that larger, more stable economies can achieve policy objectives more successfully by accommodating rather than driving other countries' policies. It appears that the driving force is Canada, which is linked to the USA, UK and France in three out of the four fundamental relations, and which is a reference point for the US, Italian and German rates, which are not cointegrated, seem to be determined by country-specific factors. Copyright @ 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

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  • Barassi, Marco R & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hall, Stephen G, 2001. "Irreducibility and Structural Cointegrating Relations: An Application to the G-7 Long-Term Interest Rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 127-138, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:6:y:2001:i:2:p:127-38
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    1. Bayraci, Selcuk, 2015. "Return, shock and volatility co-movements between the bond markets of Turkey and developed countries," MPRA Paper 65758, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lucey, Brian M. & Steeley, James, 2006. "Measuring and assessing the effects and extent of international bond market integration," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-3, February.
    3. Najeeb, Syed Faiq & Bacha, Obiyathulla & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Does a held-to-maturity strategy impede effective portfolio diversification for Islamic bond (sukuk) portfolios? A multi-scale continuous wavelet correlation analysis," MPRA Paper 56956, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Selçuk BAYRACI, 2018. "Return, shock and volatility spillovers between the bond markets of Turkey and developed countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(616), A), pages 135-144, Autumn.
    5. Peter G. Dunne & Michael J. Moore & Richard Portes, 2002. "Defining Benchmark Status: An Application using Euro-Area Bonds," NBER Working Papers 9087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ciner, Cetin, 2007. "Dynamic linkages between international bond markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 290-303, October.
    7. Kemal Eyuboglu & Sinem Eyuboglu, 2017. "Examining the Developed and Emerging Bond Market Interactions: A VAR Analysis," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 13(2), pages 139-156, April.
    8. Yang, Jian, 2005. "International bond market linkages: a structural VAR analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 39-54, January.
    9. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Addo, Emmanuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2021. "Re-examination of international bond market dependence: Evidence from a pair copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Strauch, Rolf & Paesani, Paolo & Kremer, Manfred, 2006. "Public debt and long-term interest rates: the case of Germany, Italy and the USA," Working Paper Series 656, European Central Bank.
    11. Aditya Keshari & Amit Gautam, 2022. "Empirical Testing of Co-integration of International Financial Markets with Reference to India, the USA, Japan, and Hong Kong," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 11(1), pages 34-43, June.
    12. Peter G. Dunne & Michael J. Moore & Richard Portes, 2007. "Benchmark Status in Fixed‐Income Asset Markets," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(9‐10), pages 1615-1634, November.
    13. Jian Yang, 2005. "Government bond market linkages: evidence from Europe," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(9), pages 599-610.
    14. Hassan, M. Kabir & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Dreassi, Alberto & Miani, Stefano & Sclip, Alex, 2018. "The determinants of co-movement dynamics between sukuk and conventional bonds," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 73-84.
    15. Marco Barassi & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Stephen Hall, 2005. "Interest rate linkages: identifying structural relations," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 977-986.
    16. Bhuiyan, Rubaiyat Ahsan & Rahman, Maya Puspa & Saiti, Buerhan & Ghani, Gairuzazmi Bin Mat, 2019. "Does the Malaysian Sovereign sukuk market offer portfolio diversification opportunities for global fixed-income investors? Evidence from wavelet coherence and multivariate-GARCH analyses," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 675-687.
    17. Adugna Olani, 2016. "Dynamic Capital Inflow Transmission Of Monetary Policy To Emerging Markets," Working Paper 1358, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    18. Shabeer Khan & Niaz Ahmed Bhutto & Uzair Abdullah Khan & Mohd Ziaur Rehman & Wadi B. Alonazi & Abdullah Ludeen, 2022. "Ṣukūk or Bond, Which Is More Sustainable during COVID-19? Global Evidence from the Wavelet Coherence Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-20, August.
    19. Marta Gómez†Puig, 2009. "Systemic and Idiosyncratic Risk in EU†15 Sovereign Yield Spreads after Seven Years of Monetary Union," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(5), pages 971-1000, November.
    20. Ghoshray, Atanu & Lloyd, Tim A., 2003. "Price Linkages In The International Wheat Market," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25852, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    21. Babalos, Vassilios & Stavroyiannis, Stavros, 2017. "Modelling correlation dynamics of EMU sovereign debt markets during the recent turmoil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1021-1029.
    22. Jeon, Bang Nam & Ji, Philip & Zhang, Hongfang, 2012. "International linkages of Japanese bond markets: an empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 36929, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jan 2012.

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