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The term structure of equity premia and the macroeconomy: some results

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  • Laine, Olli-Matti

Abstract

This letter analyses the relationship between the term structure of stock market risk premia and the key macroeconomic variables: inflation and GDP growth. The term structure of risk premia is obtained using a new method that utilises dividend future contracts and analysts’ dividend expectations. The results show that investors require high risk premia when GDP growth is expected to be low. The relationship between expected inflation and risk premia is less clear.

Suggested Citation

  • Laine, Olli-Matti, 2022. "The term structure of equity premia and the macroeconomy: some results," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:216:y:2022:i:c:s0165176522001835
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110606
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 19-23, May.
    2. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    3. Niels Joachim Gormsen, 2021. "Time Variation of the Equity Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 1959-1999, August.
    4. James Claus & Jacob Thomas, 2001. "Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1629-1666, October.
    5. Olli-Matti Laine, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Stock Market Valuation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(1), pages 365-416, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market; Equity premium; Macroeconomy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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