IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijc/ijcjou/y2008q2a4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Specification and Calibration Errors in Measures of Portfolio Credit Risk: The Case of the ASRF Model

Author

Listed:
  • Nikola Tarashev

    (Monetary and Economic Department, Bank for International Settlements)

  • Haibin Zhu

    (Monetary and Economic Department, Bank for International Settlements)

Abstract

This paper focuses on the asymptotic single-risk-factor (ASRF) model in order to analyze the impact of specification and calibration errors on popular measures of portfolio credit risk. Violations of key assumptions of this model are found to be virtually inconsequential, especially for large, welldiversified portfolios. By contrast, flaws in the calibrated interdependence of credit risk across exposures, caused by plausible small-sample estimation errors or rule-of-thumb values of asset return correlations, can lead to significant inaccuracies in measures of portfolio credit risk. Similar inaccuracies arise under standard assumptions regarding the tails of the distribution of asset returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikola Tarashev & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Specification and Calibration Errors in Measures of Portfolio Credit Risk: The Case of the ASRF Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 129-173, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2008:q:2:a:4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb08q2a4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb08q2a4.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klaus Düllmann & Nancy Masschelein, 2006. "The impact of sector concentration in loan portfolios on economic capital," Financial Stability Review, National Bank of Belgium, vol. 4(1), pages 175-187, June.
    2. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    3. Lütkebohmert, Eva & Gordy, Michael B., 2007. "Granularity adjustment for Basel II," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Michael S. Gibson, 2004. "Understanding the risk of synthetic CDOs," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Hanson, Samuel G. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til, 2008. "Firm heterogeneity and credit risk diversification," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 583-612, September.
    6. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    7. Lopez, Jose A., 2004. "The empirical relationship between average asset correlation, firm probability of default, and asset size," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 265-283, April.
    8. Susanne Emmer & Dirk Tasche, 2003. "Calculating credit risk capital charges with the one-factor model," Papers cond-mat/0302402, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2005.
    9. Antje Berndt & Rohan Douglas & Darrell Duffie & Mark Ferguson, "undated". "Measuring Default Risk Premia from Default Swap Rates and EDFs," GSIA Working Papers 2006-E31, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    10. Nikola A. Tarashev & Haibin Zhu, 2006. "The pricing of portfolio credit risk," BIS Working Papers 214, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Loffler, Gunter, 2003. "The effects of estimation error on measures of portfolio credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1427-1453, August.
    12. Düllmann, Klaus & Scheicher, Martin & Schmieder, Christian, 2007. "Asset correlations and credit portfolio risk: an empirical analysis," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,13, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Klaus Düllmann & Nancy Masschelein, 2006. "Sector Concentration in Loan Portfolios and Economic Capital," Working Paper Research 105, National Bank of Belgium.
    14. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
    15. Masschelein, Nancy & Düllmann, Klaus, 2006. "Sector concentration in loan portfolios and economic capital," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
    2. Metzler A., 2020. "State dependent correlations in the Vasicek default model," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 298-329, January.
    3. Simone Varotto, 2008. "An Assessment of the Internal Rating Based Approach in Basel II," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2008-04, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    4. Dimitrios Bisias & Mark Flood & Andrew W. Lo & Stavros Valavanis, 2012. "A Survey of Systemic Risk Analytics," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 255-296, October.
    5. Metzler A., 2020. "State dependent correlations in the Vasicek default model," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 298-329, January.
    6. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Assessing the systemic risk of a heterogeneous portfolio of banks during the recent financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 193-205.
    7. Akcay, Mustafa & Elyasiani, Elyas, 2021. "The link between the federal funds rate and banking system distress: An empirical investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    8. Chalermchatvichien, Pichaphop & Jumreornvong, Seksak & Jiraporn, Pornsit, 2014. "Basel III, capital stability, risk-taking, ownership: Evidence from Asia," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 28-46.
    9. Nikola Tarashev & Kostas Tsatsaronis & Claudio Borio, 2016. "Risk Attribution Using the Shapley Value: Methodology and Policy Applications," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1189-1213.
    10. Antonio Di Cesare & Anna Rogantini Picco, 2018. "A Survey of Systemic Risk Indicators," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 458, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Yan, Meilan & Hall, Maximilian J.B. & Turner, Paul, 2012. "A cost–benefit analysis of Basel III: Some evidence from the UK," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 73-82.
    12. Barbagli, Matteo & Vrins, Frédéric, 2023. "Accounting for PD-LGD dependency: A tractable extension to the Basel ASRF framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    13. Tarashev, Nikola, 2010. "Measuring portfolio credit risk correctly: Why parameter uncertainty matters," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2065-2076, September.
    14. Marina Brogi & Valentina Lagasio & Luca Riccetti, 2021. "Systemic risk measurement: bucketing global systemically important banks," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 319-351, September.
    15. M. B. Gordy & E. Lutkebohmert, 2013. "Granularity Adjustment for Regulatory Capital Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 38-77, September.
    16. Drehmann, Mathias & Tarashev, Nikola, 2013. "Measuring the systemic importance of interconnected banks," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 586-607.
    17. Lee, Yongwoong & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2016. "Accuracy of mortgage portfolio risk forecasts during financial crises," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 440-456.
    18. Kao, Lie-Jane, 2015. "A portfolio-invariant capital allocation scheme penalizing concentration risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 560-570.
    19. Henry Penikas, 2023. "Unaccounted model risk for Basel IRB models deemed acceptable by conventional validation criteria," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(4), pages 1-25, December.
    20. Gourieroux, C. & Jasiak, J., 2012. "Granularity adjustment for default risk factor model with cohorts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1464-1477.
    21. Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2014. "Forecasting Mortgage Securitization Risk Under Systematic Risk and Parameter Uncertainty," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 81(3), pages 563-586, September.
    22. Henry Penikas, 2022. "Model Risk for Acceptable, but Imperfect, Discrimination and Calibration in Basel PD and LGD Models," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps92, Bank of Russia.
    23. Eva Lutkebohmert & Julian Sester, 2024. "Measuring Name Concentrations through Deep Learning," Papers 2403.16525, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nikola A. Tarashev & Haibin Zhu, 2007. "Modelling and calibration errors in measures of portfolio credit risk," BIS Working Papers 230, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Mager, Ferdinand & Schmieder, Christian, 2008. "Stress testing of real credit portfolios," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,17, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Pierpaolo Grippa & Lucyna Gornicka, 2016. "Measuring Concentration Risk - A Partial Portfolio Approach," IMF Working Papers 2016/158, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
    5. Schmidt, Rafael & Schmieder, Christian, 2009. "Modelling dynamic portfolio risk using risk drivers of elliptical processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 229-244, April.
    6. Klaus Duellmann & Jonathan Küll & Michael Kunisch, 2010. "Estimating asset correlations from stock prices or default rates - which method is superior?," Post-Print hal-00736734, HAL.
    7. Düllmann, Klaus & Kunisch, Michael & Küll, Jonathan, 2008. "Estimating asset correlations from stock prices or default rates: which method is superior?," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,04, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Nikola Tarashev & Haibin Zhu, 2007. "Measuring portfolio credit risk: modelling versus calibration errors," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    9. Klaus Düllmann & Nancy Masschelein, 2007. "A Tractable Model to Measure Sector Concentration Risk in Credit Portfolios," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 55-79, October.
    10. Duellmann, Klaus & Küll, Jonathan & Kunisch, Michael, 2010. "Estimating asset correlations from stock prices or default rates--Which method is superior?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2341-2357, November.
    11. Natalia Nehrebecka, 2018. "Sectoral risk assessment with particular emphasis on export enterprises in Poland," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(2), pages 677-700.
    12. Bandyopadhyay, Arindam, 2010. "Understanding the Effect of Concentration Risk in the Banks’ Credit Portfolio: Indian Cases," MPRA Paper 24822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Masschelein, Nancy & Düllmann, Klaus, 2006. "Sector concentration in loan portfolios and economic capital," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Palombini, Edgardo, 2009. "Factor models and the credit risk of a loan portfolio," MPRA Paper 20107, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2012. "Capital incentives and adequacy for securitizations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 733-748.
    16. Hsin-Hui Chiu & Eva Wagner, 2020. "CEO Bonus Pay and Firm Credit Risk," International Journal of Risk and Contingency Management (IJRCM), IGI Global, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, January.
    17. Klomp, Jeroen, 2013. "Government interventions and default risk: Does one size fit all?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 641-653.
    18. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:152:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Correa, Arnildo & Marins, Jaqueline & Neves, Myrian & da Silva, Antonio Carlos, 2014. "Credit Default and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation of Brazilian Retail Loans," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(3), September.
    20. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
    21. Berndt, Antje & Obreja, Iulian, 2007. "The pricing of risk in European credit and corporate bond markets," Working Paper Series 805, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2008:q:2:a:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank for International Settlements (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.ijcb.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.