IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ifs/fistud/v38y2017ip179-217.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Puzzle of Persistently Negative Interest‐Rate–Growth Differentials: Financial Repression or Income Catch‐Up?

Author

Listed:
  • Julio Escolano
  • Anna Shabunina
  • Jaejoon Woo

Abstract

The interest rate-growth differential (IRGD) shows a marked correlation with GDP per capita. It has been on average around 1 percentage point for large advanced economies during 1999-2008; but below -7 percentage points among non-advanced economies - exerting a powerful stabilizing influence on government debt ratios. We show that large negative IRGDs are largely due to real interest rates well below market equilibrium - possibly stemming from financial repression and captive and distorted markets, whereas the income catch-up process plays a relatively modest role. We find econometric support for this conjecture. Therefore, the IRGD in non-advanced economies is likely to rise with financial integration and market development, well before their GDP per capita converges to advanced-economy levels.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Julio Escolano & Anna Shabunina & Jaejoon Woo, 2017. "The Puzzle of Persistently Negative Interest‐Rate–Growth Differentials: Financial Repression or Income Catch‐Up?," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 38, pages 179-217, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:38:y:2017:i::p:179-217
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Luc Laeven & Mr. Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," IMF Working Papers 2010/146, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    3. Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 705-739, October.
    4. Blanchard Olivier & Weil Philippe, 2001. "Dynamic Efficiency, the Riskless Rate, and Debt Ponzi Games under Uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-23, November.
    5. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    6. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    8. King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio T, 1993. "Transitional Dynamics and Economic Growth in the Neoclassical Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 908-931, September.
    9. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934, Elsevier.
    10. Asli Demeirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine (ed.), 0. "Finance and Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 17119.
    11. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia1, 2015. "The liquidation of government debt," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 291-333.
    14. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-393, March.
    15. Abdul Abiad & Enrica Detragiache & Thierry Tressel, 2010. "A New Database of Financial Reforms," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(2), pages 281-302, June.
    16. Bartolini, Leonardo & Cottarelli, Carlo, 1994. "Government Ponzi games and the sustainability of public deficits under uncertainty," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 1-22, March.
    17. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300.
    18. Luigi Spaventa, 1987. "The Growth of Public Debt: Sustainability, Fiscal Rules, and Monetary Rules," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(2), pages 374-399, June.
    19. Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2010. "Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 2010/184, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Reinhart, Carmen & Kirkegaard, Jacob & Sbrancia, Belen, 2011. "Financial repression redux," MPRA Paper 31641, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Mr. Emanuele Baldacci & Ding Ding & Mr. David Coady & Giovanni Callegari & Pietro Tommasino & Jaejoon Woo & Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar, 2010. "Public Expenditures on Social Programs and Household Consumption in China," IMF Working Papers 2010/069, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, April.
    23. Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 5-44, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David Amaglobeli & Mr. Nicolas End & Mariusz Jarmuzek & Mr. Geremia Palomba, 2015. "From Systemic Banking Crises to Fiscal Costs: Risk Factors," IMF Working Papers 2015/166, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mr. Philip Barrett, 2018. "Interest-Growth Differentials and Debt Limits in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/082, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Till Cordes & Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Miss Anke Weber, 2015. "Expenditure Rules: Effective Tools for Sound Fiscal Policy?," IMF Working Papers 2015/029, International Monetary Fund.
    4. David Turner & Francesca Spinelli, 2011. "Explaining the Interest-Rate-Growth Differential Underlying Government Debt Dynamics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 919, OECD Publishing.
    5. Simona Malovana & Josef Bajzik & Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Jan Janku, 2020. "A Prolonged Period of Low Interest Rates: Unintended Consequences," Research and Policy Notes 2020/02, Czech National Bank.
    6. Wenzlaff, Ferdinand & Kimmich, Christian & Richters, Oliver, 2014. "Theoretische Zugänge eines Wachstumszwangs in der Geldwirtschaft," ZÖSS-Discussion Papers 45, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    7. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Stefano Patrì, 2023. "Optimal correction of the public debt and measures of fiscal soundness," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 138-162, February.
    8. Paolo Mauro & Jing Zhou, 2021. "$$r-g," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 197-229, March.
    9. Moreno Badia, Marialuz & Medas, Paulo & Gupta, Pranav & Xiang, Yuan, 2022. "Debt is not free," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    10. Heimberger, Philipp, 2023. "Public debt and r-g risks in advanced economies: Eurozone versus stand-alone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    11. Philip Turner, 2013. "Benign neglect of the long-term interest rate," BIS Working Papers 403, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Heylen, Freddy & Mareels, Marthe & Van Langenhove, Christophe, 2024. "Long-run perspectives on r-g in OECD countries: An empirical analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    13. Bart W. Edes & Peter J. Morgan, 2014. "Managing Fiscal Sustainability and Aging in Emerging Asia," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 10(2), pages 319-348, August.
    14. David Turner & Francesca Spinelli, 2013. "The Effect of Government Debt, External Debt and their Interaction on OECD Interest Rates," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1103, OECD Publishing.
    15. Jan Priewe, 2020. "Why 60 and 3 percent? European debt and deficit rules - critique and alternatives," IMK Studies 66-2020, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    16. repec:ecb:ecbdps:202426 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Jussi Lindgren, 2021. "Examination of Interest-Growth Differentials and the Risk of Sovereign Insolvency," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-14, April.
    18. van Riet, Ad, 2018. "Financial repression and high public debt in Europe," Other publications TiSEM 3391dd73-357a-4071-825c-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Simona Malovaná & Josef Bajzík & Dominika Ehrenbergerová & Jan Janků, 2023. "A prolonged period of low interest rates in Europe: Unintended consequences," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 526-572, April.
    20. Mr. Paolo Mauro & Jing Zhou, 2020. "r minus g negative: Can We Sleep More Soundly?," IMF Working Papers 2020/052, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Nazim Belhocine & Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba, 2013. "The Impact of Debt Sustainability and the Level of Debt on Emerging Markets Spreads," IMF Working Papers 2013/093, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Raffaele De Marchi, 2022. "Public debt in low-income countries: current state, restructuring challenges and lessons from the past," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 739, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jean Arcand & Enrico Berkes & Ugo Panizza, 2015. "Too much finance?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 105-148, June.
    2. Samatas, Andreas & Makrominas, Michalis & Moro, Andrea, 2019. "Financial intermediation, capital composition and income stagnation: The case of Europe," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 273-289.
    3. W.N.W Azman‐Saini & Peter Smith, 2011. "Finance And Growth: New Evidence On The Role Of Insurance," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(2), pages 111-127, June.
    4. Levine, Oliver & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2021. "Finance and productivity growth: Firm-level evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 91-107.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2014_005 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Christian Saborowski, 2009. "Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate: Can Financial Development Cure the Dutch Disease?," IMF Working Papers 2009/020, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Thiago Christiano Silva & Iftekhar Hasan & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2021. "Financing choice and local economic growth: evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 329-357, September.
    8. Alimov, Behzod, 2019. "Private debt, public debt, and capital misallocation," IWH-CompNet Discussion Papers 7/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    9. Hendrik Hakenes & Iftekhar Hasan & PhilIP Molyneux & Ru Xie, 2015. "Small Banks and Local Economic Development," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 653-683.
    10. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    11. James B. Ang & Jakob B. Madsen, 2012. "Risk capital, private credit, and innovative production," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(4), pages 1608-1639, November.
    12. Abdilahi Ali & Katsushi S. Imai, 2015. "Editor's choice Crises, Economic Integration and Growth Collapses in African Countries," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 24(4), pages 471-501.
    13. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Sana Azzabi, 2014. "Intégration financière internationale et croissance économique dans les pays émergents et en développement : le canal du développement financier," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 22(3), pages 27-68.
    14. Ahlin, Christian & Pang, Jiaren, 2008. "Are financial development and corruption control substitutes in promoting growth?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 414-433, June.
    15. Michael Brei & Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2020. "Bank intermediation activity in a low‐interest‐rate environment," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 49(2), July.
    16. Marc Steffen Rapp & Iuliia A. Udoieva, 2018. "What matters in the finance–growth nexus of advanced economies? Evidence from OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(6), pages 676-690, February.
    17. Zouheir Abida & Imen Mohamed Sghaier & Nahed Zghidi, 2015. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from North African Countries," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 2, pages 17-33, April.
    18. Thorsten Beck, 2013. "Finance, growth and fragility: the role of government," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1/2), pages 49-77.
    19. Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Seyed Reza Yousefi, 2016. "The Finance and Growth Nexus Re-Examined: Do All Countries Benefit Equally?," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(5), pages 5-38, June.
    20. Boris Cournède & Oliver Denk & Peter Hoeller, 2015. "Finance and Inclusive Growth," OECD Economic Policy Papers 14, OECD Publishing.
    21. Hardy, Bryan & Sever, Can, 2021. "Financial crises and innovation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:38:y:2017:i::p:179-217. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emma Hyman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifsssuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.