Subsidising consumer services: effects on employment, welfare and the informal economy

It is widely agreed that the opportunities for expansion of aggregate employment in the OECD area must be sought mainly in the private service sector. Thus,because of budgetary problems and voter resistance to higher tax rates, the scope for further expansion of public sector employment seems limited in most OECD countries. Furthermore, the primary sector will undoubtedly continue to release labour resources and, with normal growth rates, there is little prospect of a secular rise in manufacturing employment, since the increase in demand for manufactures is likely to be met through increases in labour productivity. In particular, the ongoing shifts in the international division of labour and the associated transition to the ‘knowledge-based economy’ within the OECD are likely to destroy a large number of manufacturing jobs for unskilled and lowskilled workers in the OECD area.