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Chaos theory: forecasting the freight rate of an oil tanker

Author

Listed:
  • Eleftherios I. Thalassinos
  • Mike P. Hanias
  • Panayiotis G. Curtis
  • Yannis E. Thalassinos

Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to predict the Aframax tanker charter rate index by using methods from non-linear analysis especially from chaos theory as is the method of false nearest neighbours (FNN). This is the result of the new emerging field of econo-physics which mainly consists of autonomous physico-mathematical models that have been already applied to the financial markets and now in particular aspects of the complex non-linear dynamics of several maritime indices such as the time charter rate of an Aframax tanker.

Suggested Citation

  • Eleftherios I. Thalassinos & Mike P. Hanias & Panayiotis G. Curtis & Yannis E. Thalassinos, 2009. "Chaos theory: forecasting the freight rate of an oil tanker," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 76-88.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijcome:v:1:y:2009:i:1:p:76-88
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    Cited by:

    1. V.V. Kolmakov & L.N. Rudneva & Y.E. Thalassinos, 2020. "Public Survey Instruments for Business Administration Using Social Network Analysis and Big Data," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(2), pages 3-18.
    2. Budi Frensidy & Irene Josephine & Ignatius Roni Setyawan, 2019. "Price Formation around Dividend Announcement Date: Empirical Evidence in Indonesian Stock Exchange," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 106-118.
    3. Anis Chariri & Indira Januarti, 2017. "Audit Committee Characteristics and Integrated Reporting:Empirical Study of Companies Listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4B), pages 305-318.
    4. repec:ers:journl:v:xxvi:y:2023:i:3:p:333-350 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. E.V. Kuznetsova & D.S. Teleev, 2019. "Cybernetic Solutions in Analytical Management of Company’s Business Activity in Stable Growth Condi-tions," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(Special 2), pages 354-366.
    6. Eleftherios I. Thalassinos & Mike P. Hanias & Panayiotis G. Curtis & John E. Thalassinos, 2013. "Forecasting Financial Indices: The Baltic Dry Indices," International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), vol. 0(1), pages 109-130.
    7. Andrzej S. Grzelakowski, 2023. "Costs and Benefits of the Disruptions Caused by the Pandemic Crisis and the Container Shipping Market’s Turbulences and their Allocation within the Global Supply Chains: An Analytical Approach," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 133-151.
    8. Alexander Mikhailovich Batkovskiy & Viktor Antonovich Nesterov & Olga Olegovna Reshetova & Elena Georgievna Semenova & Alena Vladimirovna Fomina, 2017. "Dynamic Model of Optimal Production Control in a Hysteretic Behaviour of Economic Agents," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2A), pages 355-379.
    9. Pudji Astuty, 2017. "The Influence of Fundamental Factors and Systematic Risk to Stock Prices on Companies Listed in the Indonesian Stock Exchange," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4A), pages 230-240.
    10. Zhanarys S. Raimbekov & Bakyt U. Syzdykbayeva & Kamshat P. Mussina & Luiza P. Moldashbayeva & Bakytzhamal A. Zhumataeva, 2017. "The Study of the Logistics Development Effectiveness in the Eurasian Economic Union Countries and Measures to Improve it," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4B), pages 260-276.
    11. Mike P. Hanias & Lykourgos Magafas, 2013. "Predicting the Production of Total Industry in Greece with Chaos Theory and Neural Networks," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 59-67.
    12. Panagiotis Mantalos & Kyriacos Mattheou & Alex Karagrigoriou, 2010. "Vector autoregressive order selection and forecasting via the modified divergence information criterion," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(3/4), pages 254-277.
    13. Brikota T.B. & Delenyan B.A. & Ksenz M.V. & Fedorova N.B., 2018. "Prospects for the Development of Sea Transport of the Russian Federation in World Trade," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 2), pages 823-832.
    14. Andrzej S. Grzelakowski, 2023. "Global Maritime Container Carriers' Mid-term Strategies as a Tool for Change Management in the Post-Covid Era," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 737-754.
    15. Nurul Hidayah & Wahyudin Zarkasyi, 2017. "The Effect of Human Resources Management Competency and the Role of Culture on Accrual Accounting Implementation Effectiveness and the Impact on Quality of Accounting Information," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4B), pages 183-199.
    16. Risna Triandhari & Sugiharso Safuan & M. Syamsudin & Halim Alamsyah, 2017. "The Effect of Allocation of Dividend of the Regional Government-Owned Enterprises and the Empowerment Efforts on the Revenue of Regional Government: The Case of Indonesia," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4B), pages 244-258.
    17. Alexandros M. Goulielmos & Maria-Elpiniki Psifia, 2011. "Forecasting short-term freight rate cycles: do we have a more appropriate method than a normal distribution?," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(6), pages 645-672, January.
    18. Isabella Damdinovna Elyakova & Aleksandr Andreyevich Khristoforov & Aleksandr Lvovich Elyakov & Larisa Ivanovna Danilova & Tamara Aleksandrovna Karataeva & Elena Vladimirovna Danilova, 2017. "Forecast Scenarios of World Prices for Natural Gas," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4A), pages 284-297.
    19. Alexander Lvovich Elyakov & Isabella Damdinovna Elyakova & Larisa Ivanovna Danilova & Alexander Andreevich Khristoforov & Oleg Ilich Kondratev & Valentina Vasilyevna Grigoryeva, 2017. "History and Prospects of Natural Gas Pricing in Continental Europe in Conditions of Instability of World Oil Prices," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4A), pages 323-338.
    20. Dariusz Bernacki, 2021. "Revealing the Impact of Increased Tanker Size on Shipping Costs," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 604-621.
    21. Olga Viktorovna Kitova & Viktoriya Mikhailovna Savinova & Ludmila Pavlovna Dyakonova & Sergey Naumovich Bruskin & Anton Andreevich Beshmelnitskiy & Tamara Petrovna Danko & Vladimir Dmitrievich Sekerin, 2017. "Information-Analytical System for Forecasting Indicators of the Social and Economic Sphere of the Russian Federation," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4A), pages 275-283.

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