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Forecast Scenarios of World Prices for Natural Gas

Author

Listed:
  • Isabella Damdinovna Elyakova
  • Aleksandr Andreyevich Khristoforov
  • Aleksandr Lvovich Elyakov
  • Larisa Ivanovna Danilova
  • Tamara Aleksandrovna Karataeva
  • Elena Vladimirovna Danilova

Abstract

The study proposes forecast scenarios for the development of world prices for natural gas based on economic and mathematical modeling and the analysis of the historical trend of extraction, consumption, export and import of natural gas. The main research method is correlation-regression analysis which allowed establishing how strong the correlation of world prices for natural gas and world oil prices is. Also, the methods of historical trend and mathematical analysis were used to determine the main forecast scenarios for price levels of natural gas. The study represents a new approach to the analysis of the dynamics of world prices for natural gas based on economic and mathematical modeling. The article examines the dynamics of the global natural gas market and analyzes trends in price changes, as well as establishes the relationship between global prices for natural gas and the world oil market for making forecasts of the cost of natural gas.

Suggested Citation

  • Isabella Damdinovna Elyakova & Aleksandr Andreyevich Khristoforov & Aleksandr Lvovich Elyakov & Larisa Ivanovna Danilova & Tamara Aleksandrovna Karataeva & Elena Vladimirovna Danilova, 2017. "Forecast Scenarios of World Prices for Natural Gas," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4A), pages 284-297.
    • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xx:y:2017:i:3a:p:284-297
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Demetriou, E. & Hadjistassou, C., 2021. "Can China decarbonize its electricity sector?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PB).
    2. Arora, Akhil & Zantye, Manali S. & Hasan, M.M. Faruque, 2022. "Sustainable hydrogen manufacturing via renewable-integrated intensified process for refueling stations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting; natural gas; oil; world prices; natural gas market. JEL Classification: F14; F17; F47;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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