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Leapfrogging to electric vehicles: patterns and scenarios for China's automobile industry

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  • Hua Wang
  • Chris Kimble

Abstract

The idea of leapfrogging, where a newly industrialising nation moves directly to the use of advanced technologies without needing to follow the trajectory of its predecessors, is an attractive one, particularly for the automobile industry where there is an urgent need to develop more sustainable technologies. China now has the highest level of automobile production and sales in the world; thus, the question we address in this article is, can China 'leapfrog' to the development of clean and economically viable electric vehicles? The existing literature on leapfrogging is ambiguous and ill defined; we review the literature and identify four generic patterns for leapfrogging. We then present some empirical data on the factors that might influence China's ability to leapfrog to electric vehicles. We conclude with an evaluation of the likelihood of it actually being able to do so and propose three leapfrogging scenarios that it might follow.

Suggested Citation

  • Hua Wang & Chris Kimble, 2011. "Leapfrogging to electric vehicles: patterns and scenarios for China's automobile industry," International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 11(4), pages 312-325.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijatma:v:11:y:2011:i:4:p:312-325
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    Cited by:

    1. Lasse Fridstrøm, 2021. "The Norwegian Vehicle Electrification Policy and Its Implicit Price of Carbon," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-14, January.
    2. Gábor Túry, 2018. "Consequences Of Technological Changes In The Automotive Industry – Perspectives Of The Central European Region As Part Of The Global Value Chains," Global Economic Observer, "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences;Institute for World Economy of the Romanian Academy, vol. 6(2), pages 82-94, December.
    3. Bekerman, Marta & Dulcich, Federico & Gaite, Pedro, 2022. "Argentina’s economic relations with China and their impact on a long-term production strategy," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    4. Hua Wang & Chris Kimble, 2013. "Innovation and Leapfrogging in the Chinese Automobile Industry : Examples From Geely, BYD, and Shifeng," Post-Print hal-02313424, HAL.
    5. Saiful Hasan & Terje Andreas Mathisen, 2020. "Policy measures for electric vehicle adoption. A review of evidence from Norway and China," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(1), pages 25-46.
    6. Martin Kalthaus & Jiatang Sun, 2021. "Determinants of Electric Vehicle Diffusion in China," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(3), pages 473-510, November.
    7. Wang, Yunshi & Sperling, Daniel & Tal, Gil & Fang, Haifeng, 2017. "China's electric car surge," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 486-490.

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