IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/idn/journl/v8y2005i3p1-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR RIIL TERHADAP NERACA PERDAGANGAN BILATERAL INDONESIA: Kondisi Marshall-Lerner dan Fenomena J-curve

Author

Listed:
  • Jardine Ariena Husman

    (Bank Indonesia)

Abstract

The paper analyzes the Marshall-Lerner condition on Indonesian trade with its major trading partners. This study also investigates the existence of J-curve and covers the issue of the indirect pass-through effect, particularly the impact of the real exchange rate change on the Indonesian export performance. We apply the VECM model on the quarterly data of Indonesia and 8 of its trading partners, during the period of 1993:1-2004:4. The estimation result on the overall sample shows that the condition of Marshall-Lerner is satisfied, implying the rupiahs depreciation will increase the Indonesian export. Using each trading partner pair data, the Marshall-Lerner condition is not satisfied on the case of Singapore and England due to the inelastic export demand as the Indonesian export to both countries is mostly a consumption goods. The J-curve phenomenon is only found in the case of Japan, South Korea and Germany implying the depreciation of Rupiahs will increase Indonesian export. The elasticity estimation shows that 1% depreciation of Rupiahs only raise Indonesian export-import ratio by 0.37%. This small number strongly indicates that real exchange rate only plays a minor role on the Indonesian export performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Jardine Ariena Husman, 2005. "PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR RIIL TERHADAP NERACA PERDAGANGAN BILATERAL INDONESIA: Kondisi Marshall-Lerner dan Fenomena J-curve," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 8(3), pages 1-26, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:8:y:2005:i:3:p:1-26
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v8i3.141
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://bulletin.bmeb-bi.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1438&context=bmeb
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v8i3.141?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kim Edwards & Sahminan, 2008. "Exchange Rate Movements in Indonesia: Determinants, Effects, and Policy Challenges," Working Papers WP/25/2008, Bank Indonesia.
    2. Akhis HUTABARAT, 2010. "Monetary Transmission of Elongated Shock to the Risk Premium," EcoMod2010 259600078, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; J-Curve; Marshall-Lerner; export; VECM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:8:y:2005:i:3:p:1-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lutzardo Tobing or Jimmy Kathon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bigovid.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.