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Tri-Cycles Analysis On Bankperformance: Panel Var Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Denny Irawan

    (University of Indonesia, Indonesia)

  • Febrio Kacarib

    (University of Indonesia, Indonesia)

Abstract

The previous financial crisis has revealed the importance of risk in the financial and business cycle within the economy. This paper examines relationship among three cycles in the economy, namely (i) business cycle macro risk, (ii) credit cycle and (iii) risk cycle, and their impacts toward individual bank performance. We examine the responses of individual bank credit cycle and risk cycle toward a shock in business cycle macro risk and its consequence to the bank performance. We use Indonesian data for period of 2005q1 to 2014q4. We use unbalanced panel data of individual banks’ balance sheet with Panel Vector Autoregressive approach based on GMM style estimation by implementing PVAR package developed by Abrigo and Love (2015). The result shows dynamic relationship between business cycle macro risk and financial risk cycles. The study also observes prominent role of risk cycles in driving bank performance. We also show the existence of financial accelerator phenomenon in Indonesian banking system, in which financial cycles precede the business cycle macro risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Denny Irawan & Febrio Kacarib, 2017. "Tri-Cycles Analysis On Bankperformance: Panel Var Approach," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 19(4), pages 403-442, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:19:y:2017:i:4b:p:403-442
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v19i4.694
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Tinbergen, 1940. "Econometric Business Cycle Research," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 7(2), pages 73-90.
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    3. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2011. "A perspective on modern business cycle theory," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 97(3Q), pages 195-208.
    4. Ibrahim, Mansor H., 2016. "Business cycle and bank lending procyclicality in a dual banking system," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 127-134.
    5. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycle Risk; Credit Cycle; Bank Lending; Financial Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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