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Early Warning System And Currency Volatility Management In Emerging Market

Author

Listed:
  • Natasia Engeline S

    (Bank Indonesia)

  • Salomo Posmauli Matondang

    (Bank Indonesia)

Abstract

This paper adopts theoretical models from Candelon, Dumitrescu, and Hurlin and empirical model from Commerzbank to devise a set of indicators that can serve as an early warning system (EWS) on exchange rate. In light of the appreciation of emerging countries’ currencies during the Fed quantitative easing period, it is important to understand on how The Fed normalization would put pressure on managing volatility for central banks, especially for countries with large trade and fiscal deficit such as Indonesia. All in all, using both EWS models, central banks could discern potential exchange rate depreciation for intervention purpose.

Suggested Citation

  • Natasia Engeline S & Salomo Posmauli Matondang, 2016. "Early Warning System And Currency Volatility Management In Emerging Market," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 19(2), pages 129-152, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:19:y:2016:i:2a:p:129-152
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v19i2.627
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic Logit Model; Foreign Exchange; Early Warning System; Emerging Countries; Foreign Exchange Intervention;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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