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Optimal Credit Growth

Author

Listed:
  • G.A Diah Utari
  • Trinil Arimurti
  • Ina Nurmalia Kurniati

    (Bank Indonesia)

Abstract

Banking credit has an important role in financing the national economy and as engine of economic growth. The high growth of credit is a commonly normal phenomenon as a positive consequence from the increase of financial deepening in economy. On the other hand, one must consider the implication of credit growth towards the financial stabilization and macro condition. Therefore, the policy authority should be able to identify the credit growth that is considered to be risky for the financial system and the macro stability. This research measures the credit growth without negative impact towards the economy and the banking condition. The testing uses Markov Switching (MS) Univariate approach and MS Vector Error Correction Model. The result with MS Univariate approach shows that the upper limit of the real credit growth in moderate regime is about 17.39 percent, while using the MS VECM approach is about 22.15 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • G.A Diah Utari & Trinil Arimurti & Ina Nurmalia Kurniati, 2012. "Optimal Credit Growth," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 15(2), pages 3-34, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:15:y:2012:i:2f:p:3-34
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v15i2.419
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Markus Eller & Michael Frömmel & Nora Srzentic, 2010. "Private Sector Credit in CESEE: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 50-78.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank; credit; risk; markov switching error correction model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models

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