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Loan-to-value ratio restrictions and house prices: Micro evidence from New Zealand

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  • Armstrong, Jed
  • Skilling, Hayden
  • Yao, Fang

Abstract

This paper contributes to the international policy debate on the effect of macroprudential policy on housing-market dynamics. We use detailed New Zealand housing market data to evaluate the effect of loan-to-value ratio (LTV) restrictions on house prices. Our identification relies on the exemption for new builds from the LTV restrictions implemented during 2013–16 by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The empirical findings suggest that the LTV policy is effective at reducing house price inflation by limiting the credit-fuelled housing demand channel. The magnitude and duration of the policy effect depend crucially on the rate of house price growth at the time when the policy is implemented. When house prices are increasing quickly, the effect of LTV on house prices tends to be muted and short-lived.

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  • Armstrong, Jed & Skilling, Hayden & Yao, Fang, 2019. "Loan-to-value ratio restrictions and house prices: Micro evidence from New Zealand," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 88-98.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:44:y:2019:i:c:p:88-98
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2019.02.002
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gong, Yifan & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2024. "Does space matter? The case of the housing expenditure cap," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    3. Laufer, Steven & Tzur-Ilan, Nitzan, 2021. "The effect of LTV-based risk weights on house prices: Evidence from an Israeli macroprudential policy," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    4. Nicholas Garvin & Alex Kearney & Corrine Rosé, 2021. "Macroprudential Limits on Mortgage Products: The Australian Experience," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Tom Cusbert, 2023. "The Effect of Credit Constraints on Housing Prices: (Further) Evidence from a Survey Experiment," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2023-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Hodula, Martin & Melecký, Martin & Pfeifer, Lukáš & Szabo, Milan, 2023. "Cooling the mortgage loan market: The effect of borrower-based limits on new mortgage lending," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    7. Ahn, Seryoong & Ryu, Doojin, 2024. "Optimal chonsei to monthly rent conversion choice given borrowing constraints," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 28-42.
    8. Gluszak Michal & Trojanek Radoslaw, 2024. "Supply, Demand and Asymmetric Adjustment of House Prices in Poland," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 32(2), pages 31-45.
    9. Simona Malovana & Martin Hodula & Zuzana Gric & Josef Bajzik, 2022. "Borrower-Based Macroprudential Measures and Credit Growth: How Biased is the Existing Literature?," Working Papers 2022/8, Czech National Bank.
    10. Martin Hodula & Milan Szabo & Lukas Pfeifer & Martin Melecky, 2022. "Cooling the Mortgage Loan Market: The Effect of Recommended Borrower-Based Limits on New Mortgage Lending," Working Papers 2022/3, Czech National Bank.
    11. Fennee Chong & Venus Khim-Shen Liew, 2020. "New Zealand's Residential Price Dynamics: Do capability to consume and government policies matter?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2262-2274.
    12. Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2021. "House prices and affordability," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 1-6, January.
    13. Fang Yao & Bruce Lu, 2020. "The effectiveness of loan-to-value ratio policy and its interaction with monetary policy in New Zealand: an empirical analysis using supervisory bank-level data," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Measuring the effectiveness of macroprudential policies using supervisory bank-level data, volume 110, pages 51-62, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Loan-to-value ratio; House prices; Macroprudential policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling

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