IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ibn/ijefaa/v16y2024i8p65.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Exports: The Case of Canada’s Exports to United States

Author

Listed:
  • Emmanuel Erem

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of real exchange rate volatility between the Canadian dollar and United States (US) dollar on real exports from Canada. The study made use of quarterly data from 1960-2017; over half a century. The GARCH (1, 1) was used to model real exchange rate volatility. After finding the variables were non-stationary with no evidence of co-integration, a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model was used to investigate the short-run relationship in the variables making use of the Granger causality technique and impulse response functions. The results reveal that the effect of exchange rate volatility between the Canadian dollar and the US dollar is of mixed signs, with coefficients that are not statistically significant, thus, exchange rate volatility does not have an effect on the real exports of Canada to the US. In addition, the real exchange rate volatility does not Granger cause real exports. This result contradicts economic theory that predicts a negative effect of exchange rate volatility on exports. However, Tenreryo (2007) and Aristotelous (2001) report the same result in their studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Emmanuel Erem, 2024. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Exports: The Case of Canada’s Exports to United States," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(8), pages 1-65, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:16:y:2024:i:8:p:65
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/download/0/0/50463/54653
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/view/0/50463
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2002. "Exchange rate effects on the volume and variability of trade flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 481-496, August.
    2. Christopher Adam & David Cobham, 2007. "Exchange Rate Regimes And Trade," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(s1), pages 44-63, September.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. Gianluigi Giorgioni & John Thompson, 2002. "Which volatility? The case of the exports of wheat," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(10), pages 681-684.
    5. Christopher M. Meissner, 2003. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 344-353, March.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
    10. Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2000. "Does Exchange-Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1093-1109, December.
    11. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    12. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    13. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Osamah M. Al-Khazali, 2003. "Stock Prices, Inflation, and Output: Evidence from the Emerging Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 2(3), pages 287-314, September.
    3. Pami Dua & Nishita Raje & Satyananda Sahoo, 2004. "Interest Rate Modeling and Forecasting in India," Occasional papers 3, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    4. Adrian C. Darnell, 1994. "A Dictionary Of Econometrics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 118.
    5. Myers, Robert J., 1994. "Time Series Econometrics and Commodity Price Analysis: A Review," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(02), pages 1-15, August.
    6. Emmanuel Erem, "undated". "Investigating De Facto And De Jure Exchange Rate Regimes," Review of Socio - Economic Perspectives 202049, Reviewsep.
    7. Kerry Patterson & Michael A. Thornton, 2013. "A review of econometric concepts and methods for empirical macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 2, pages 4-42, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2003. "Time-series Econometrics: Cointegration and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2003-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    9. Ahsan Abbas & Eatzaz Ahmed & Fazal Husain, 2019. "Political and Economic Uncertainty and Investment Behaviour in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 58(3), pages 307-331.
    10. Tai-Liang Chen & Ching-Hsue Cheng & Jing-Wei Liu, 2019. "A Causal Time-Series Model Based on Multilayer Perceptron Regression for Forecasting Taiwan Stock Index," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(06), pages 1967-1987, November.
    11. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Modeling purchasing power parity using co-integration: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    13. R. Santos Alimi, 2014. "ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration: A Re-Examination of Augmented Fisher Hypothesis in an Open Economy," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(2), pages 103-114, June.
    14. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Does Banque de France control inflation and unemployment?," Papers 1311.1097, arXiv.org.
    15. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    16. Roberto Cellini & Tiziana Cuccia, 2013. "Museum and monument attendance and tourism flow: a time series analysis approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3473-3482, August.
    17. Erie Febrian & Aldrin Herwany, 2009. "Volatility Forecasting Models and Market Co-Integration: A Study on South-East Asian Markets," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200911, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2009.
    18. Wong, Kin-Ming & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2016. "Does monetary policy matter for trade?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 107-125.
    19. Arai, Yoichi, 2016. "Testing For Linearity In Regressions With I(1) Processes," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 57(1), pages 111-138, June.
    20. Darvas, Zsolt, 1999. "Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége [Empirical models of exchange rate target zones]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 507-529.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:16:y:2024:i:8:p:65. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Canadian Center of Science and Education (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.