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Panel Analysis of Monetary Model of ASEAN-5 Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Noor Zainab.Tunggal
  • Shariff Umar Shariff Abd. Kadir
  • Venus-Khim Sen Liew

Abstract

In this study, we examined whether the exchange rates in ASEAN-5 countries are driven by monetary fundamentals. We applied the panel unit root tests and found that the United States denominated nominal exchange rates of Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian Rupiah, Philippines Peso, Singapore Dollar, and Thailand Baht are all integrated of order one. Meanwhile, relative money supply and relative real income are also integrated in the same order. Nonetheless, the relative interest rate is integrated in order zero, and it implies the uncovered interest rate parity held in ASEAN-5. By using a panel cointegration test pioneered by Pedroni (2000, 2004), we found evidence that there is a long-run relationship between nominal exchange rate and its monetary fundamentals. Consistent with the monetary model of the exchange rate, relative money supply is positively related to nominal exchange rates, while relative real income is negatively related to nominal exchange rates. Therefore, this study reveals the importance of relative real money supply and relative income for the exchange rate market players to predict and monitor ASEAN-5 exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Noor Zainab.Tunggal & Shariff Umar Shariff Abd. Kadir & Venus-Khim Sen Liew, 2018. "Panel Analysis of Monetary Model of ASEAN-5 Exchange Rates," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(11), pages 1-7, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ibrjnl:v:11:y:2018:i:11:p:1-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary exchange rate model; panel cointegration; ASEAN;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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