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Productividad y viabilidad del sistema Público de Pensiones

Author

Listed:
  • Julián Díaz Saavedra

    (Universidad de Granada)

Abstract

Uno de los debates actuales acerca de las pensiones en España se centra en si el crecimiento sostenido de la productividad laboral resolvería en gran medida los problemas de sostenibilidad del sistema público de pensiones, y si se deberían derogar las reformas del sistema aprobadas en 2011 y 2013. Este trabajo utiliza un modelo computable de generaciones solapadas para cuantificar el crecimiento de la productividad laboral necesario para alcanzar el equilibrio presupuestario durante las próximas décadas del sistema de pensiones vigente en 2010. Los resultados indican que en el mejor de los casos, se necesitaría una tasa de crecimiento anual superior al 4 por ciento hasta el año 2050. Pero además, sería necesario, que el envejecimiento poblacional durante las próximas décadas fuera menor al actualmente proyectado por el INE, que el gobierno implemente lo que se conoce como Reforma Silenciosa, y que los trabajadores incrementen sustancialmente la duración de sus vidas laborales.

Suggested Citation

  • Julián Díaz Saavedra, 2016. "Productividad y viabilidad del sistema Público de Pensiones," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 218(3), pages 11-32, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2016:v:218:i:3:p:11-32
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Ignacio Conde-Rui & Javier Alonso, "undated". "El futuro de las pensiones en España: Perspectivas y lecciones," Working Papers 2004-03, FEDEA.
    2. Díaz-Giménez, Javier & Díaz-Saavedra, Julián, 2017. "The future of Spanish pensions," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 233-265, April.
    3. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Clara I. González, 2016. "From Bismarck to Beveridge: the other pension reform in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 461-490, November.
    4. Angel Melguizo & Manuel Balmaseda & David Taguas, 2005. "Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en Espana," Working Papers 0505, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    5. Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement around the World," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number grub99-1.
    6. Michele Boldrin & Sergi Jimenez-Martin & Franco Peracchi, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement in Spain," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security and Retirement around the World, pages 305-353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 1999. "Introduction to "Social Security and Retirement around the World"," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security and Retirement around the World, pages 1-35, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equilibrio general computable; seguridad social; jubilación;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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