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The Harvard Economic Service and the Problems of Forecasting

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  • Walter A. Friedman

Abstract

The Harvard Economic Service pioneered the business of economic forecasting by publishing a weekly newsletter on economic conditions, starting in 1922. The Harvard forecasting model, developed by the statistician and economist Warren Persons, gained international renown for its three-curve A-B-C chart, which rendered business fluctuations as the ebb and flow of speculation (A), business (B), and banking (C). The service was directed by C. J. Bullock, who promoted Harvard's forecasting service around the world by forming collaborative agreements with John Maynard Keynes, Lucien March, Corrado Gini, and other prominent economists of the time. The Harvard Economic Service, however, attracted criticism for its purely empirical approach, its failure to make consistently accurate predictions, and its pursuit of commercial objectives in a university setting. The Harvard group's efforts to build a forecasting service are an early chapter in the evolution of the social sciences, the growth of a class of financial analysts, and the commercialization of academic knowledge.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter A. Friedman, 2009. "The Harvard Economic Service and the Problems of Forecasting," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 57-88, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:hop:hopeec:v:41:y:2009:i:1:p:57-88
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bátiz-Lazo, Bernardo & Haigh, Thomas & Stearns, David L., 2014. "How the Future Shaped the Past: The Case of the Cashless Society," Enterprise & Society, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 103-131, March.
    2. T. C. Mills & K. D. Patterson, 2015. "Modelling The Trend: The Historical Origins Of Some Modern Methods And Ideas," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 527-548, July.
    3. repec:rdg:wpaper:em-dp2013-03 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Terence Mills & Kerry Patterson, 2013. "Modelling the Trend: The Historical Origins of Some Modern Methods and Ideas," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2013-03, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    5. Jozef Barunik & Lubos Hanus, 2022. "Learning Probability Distributions in Macroeconomics and Finance," Papers 2204.06848, arXiv.org.
    6. Baruník, Jozef & Hanus, Luboš, 2024. "Fan charts in era of big data and learning," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 59-86, Spring.
    8. Bjerkholt, Olav, 2014. "Econometric Society 1930: How It Got Founded," Memorandum 26/2014, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    9. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.

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