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Improving Volatility Risk Forecasting Accuracy in Industry Sector

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  • S. Al Wadi

Abstract

Recently, the volatility of financial markets has contributed a necessary part to risk management. Volatility risk is characterized as the standard deviation of the constantly compound return per day. This paper presents forecasting of volatility for the Jordanian industry sector after the crisis in 2009. ARIMA and ARIMA-Wavelet Transform (WT) have been conducted in order to select the best forecasting model in the content of industry stock market data collected from Amman Stock Exchange (ASE). As a result, the researcher found that ARIMA-WT has more accuracy than ARIMA directly. The results have been introduced using MATLAB 2010a and R programming.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Al Wadi, 2017. "Improving Volatility Risk Forecasting Accuracy in Industry Sector," International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-6, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:jijmms:1749106
    DOI: 10.1155/2017/1749106
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abounoori, Esmaiel & Elmi, Zahra (Mila) & Nademi, Younes, 2016. "Forecasting Tehran stock exchange volatility; Markov switching GARCH approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 445(C), pages 264-282.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim & Patton, Andrew J. & Quaedvlieg, Rogier, 2016. "Exploiting the errors: A simple approach for improved volatility forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 1-18.
    3. Bentes, Sonia R., 2015. "Forecasting volatility in gold returns under the GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH frameworks: New evidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 438(C), pages 355-364.
    4. Byun, Sung Je, 2016. "The usefulness of cross-sectional dispersion for forecasting aggregate stock price volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 162-180.
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    Cited by:

    1. Suha Alawi, 2019. "The Effect of Direct Foreign Investment on Stock Price Volatility in the Saudi Market," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(8), pages 875-887, August.

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