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Financial Development, Financial Structure, and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evidence from China

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  • Feng Wei

    (School of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400030, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Yu Kong

    (School of Public Affairs, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400030, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

Using annual data from 1997–2014 of 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, subdividing trended and cyclical volatility of macroeconomics and inflation, considering different indicators of financial development and financial structure, this paper investigated the impact of financial development and financial structure on macroeconomic volatility. The empirical results found that (1) the trended and cyclical volatility of the previous macroeconomic period had a significantly positive impact on that of the current period, and the impact of trended volatility was greater than that of cyclical volatility; (2) financial development had a significantly negative impact on macroeconomic cyclical volatility through inflation cyclical volatility, but inflation trended volatility would amplify macroeconomic volatility; financial markets have no significant effect on macroeconomic volatility; financial structure measured with the ratio of stock market turnover and the efficiency of the financial development had a significant positive impact on macroeconomic cyclical volatility; and (3) inflation trended volatility had a significantly negative impact on macroeconomic cyclical volatility and trended volatility, while inflation cyclical volatility had a significantly positive impact on macroeconomic cyclical volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng Wei & Yu Kong, 2016. "Financial Development, Financial Structure, and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-20, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:11:p:1116-:d:81915
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    4. Emiel F. S. van Bezooijen & Jacob A. Bikker, 2019. "Financial Structure and Macroeconomic Volatility: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(12), pages 117-117, December.
    5. Chima Igwe-Kalu & Barnabas Olusegun Obasaju, 2020. "Output Volatility in Nigeria: Does Financial Development Absorb Trade-Led Shocks?," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 10(2), pages 66-78.
    6. Kangni Kpodar & Maëlan Le Goff & Raju Jan Singh, 2019. "Financial Deepening, Terms of Trade Shocks and Growth in Low-Income Countries," Working papers 719, Banque de France.
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    8. Chor Foon Tang & Salah Abosedra, 2020. "Does Financial Development Moderate the Effects on Growth Volatility? The Experience of Malaysia," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 14(4), pages 361-381, November.

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