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Predicting the Trend of Taiwan’s Electronic Paper Industry by an Effective Combined Grey Model

Author

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  • Ying-Fang Huang

    (Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences, No. 415, Chien Kung Road, Sanmin District, Kaohsiung City 80778, Taiwan)

  • Chia-Nan Wang

    (Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences, No. 415, Chien Kung Road, Sanmin District, Kaohsiung City 80778, Taiwan)

  • Hoang-Sa Dang

    (Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences, No. 415, Chien Kung Road, Sanmin District, Kaohsiung City 80778, Taiwan)

  • Shun-Te Lai

    (Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences, No. 415, Chien Kung Road, Sanmin District, Kaohsiung City 80778, Taiwan)

Abstract

Electronic paper (e-paper) is a major sector of Taiwan’s Optoelectronic industry. It has paid much attention on the development of flexible displays. Even though the market is booming, the future is still unclear for business development. No research has yet forecasted the future market size of the e-paper industry. In addition, proposing an appropriate forecasting model to understand the trend of this industry plays a crucial role for market players and government’s authorities in formulating correct strategies. Therefore, in this paper, the future market size of Taiwan’s e-paper industry is predicted by an effective combined grey model. Two combinations of DGM(2,1) and Verhulst model with Fourier series and Markov chain, namely FM-Verhulst and FMDGM(2,1), were presented. Based on the annual data of Taiwan’s e-paper industry, the results show that the forecasting performances of two FM-Verhulst and FMDGM(2,1) models are highly accurate compared with other grey models. Precision is 96.36% and 97.77%, respectively. However, for long-term prediction, the FMDGM(2,1) model obtains the best performance in all proposed grey models. With obtained forecasting results in Taiwan’s e-paper industry by the FMDGM(2,1) model, it can be pointed out that the future market size of Taiwan’s e-paper would slowly increase in the next few years.

Suggested Citation

  • Ying-Fang Huang & Chia-Nan Wang & Hoang-Sa Dang & Shun-Te Lai, 2015. "Predicting the Trend of Taiwan’s Electronic Paper Industry by an Effective Combined Grey Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-20, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:7:y:2015:i:8:p:10664-10683:d:53872
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Gholam Hossein Hasantash & Hamidreza Mostafaei & Shaghayegh Kordnoori, 2012. "Modelling the Errors of EIA's Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 312-319.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hoang-Sa Dang & Thuy-Mai-Trinh Nguyen & Chia-Nan Wang & Jen-Der Day & Thi Minh Han Dang, 2020. "Grey System Theory in the Study of Medical Tourism Industry and Its Economic Impact," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-23, February.
    2. Hoang-Sa Dang & Ying-Fang Huang & Chia-Nan Wang & Thuy-Mai-Trinh Nguyen, 2016. "An Application of the Short-Term Forecasting with Limited Data in the Healthcare Traveling Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-14, October.
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    5. Ping Wang & Bangzhu Zhu, 2016. "Estimating the Contribution of Industry Structure Adjustment to the Carbon Intensity Target: A Case of Guangdong," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-11, April.

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