IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v6y2014i6p3271-3290d36507.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the Financial Sustainability of China’s Rural Pension System

Author

Listed:
  • Lijian Wang

    (Department of Social Security, School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China)

  • Daniel Béland

    (Johnson-Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5B8, Canada)

Abstract

Considering the rapid growth of China’s elderly rural population, establishing both an adequate and a financially sustainable rural pension system is a major challenge. Focusing on financial sustainability, this article defines this concept of financial sustainability before constructing sound actuarial models for China’s rural pension system. Based on these models and statistical data, the analysis finds that the rural pension funding gap should rise from 97.80 billion Yuan in 2014 to 3062.31 billion Yuan in 2049, which represents an annual growth rate of 10.34%. This implies that, as it stands, the rural pension system in China is not financially sustainable. Finally, the article explains how this problem could be fixed through policy recommendations based on recent international experiences.

Suggested Citation

  • Lijian Wang & Daniel Béland, 2014. "Assessing the Financial Sustainability of China’s Rural Pension System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(6), pages 1-20, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:6:y:2014:i:6:p:3271-3290:d:36507
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/6/6/3271/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/6/6/3271/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cremer, Helmuth & Pestieau, Pierre, 2000. "Reforming our pension system: Is it a demographic, financial or political problem?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 974-983, May.
    2. Gollier, Christian, 2008. "Intergenerational risk-sharing and risk-taking of a pension fund," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(5-6), pages 1463-1485, June.
    3. Grech, Aaron George, 2010. "Assessing the sustainability of pension reforms in Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 43865, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Pfeffer, Jeffrey, 2010. "Building Sustainable Organizations: The Human Factor," Research Papers 2017r, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    5. David Blake & Les Mayhew, 2006. "On The Sustainability of the UK State Pension System in the Light of Population Ageing and Declining Fertility," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(512), pages 286-305, June.
    6. Feng, Jin & He, Lixin & Sato, Hiroshi, 2011. "Public pension and household saving: Evidence from urban China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 470-485.
    7. Xiaoyan Lei & Chuanchuan Zhang & Yaohui Zhao, 2013. "Incentive Problems in China’s New Rural Pension Program," Research in Labor Economics, in: Labor Market Issues in China, pages 181-201, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    8. Nicholas Barr & Peter Diamond, 2010. "Reforming Pensions: Lessons from Economic Theory and Some Policy Directions," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2010), pages 1-23, August.
    9. Disney, Richard, 2000. "Crises in Public Pension Programmes in OECD: What Are the Reform Options?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(461), pages 1-23, February.
    10. James, Estelle, 2002. "How can China solve its old-age security problem? The interaction between pension, state enterprise and financial market reform," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 53-75, March.
    11. Alois Geyer & William T. Ziemba, 2008. "The Innovest Austrian Pension Fund Financial Planning Model InnoALM," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(4), pages 797-810, August.
    12. Blake, David, 1998. "Pension schemes as options on pension fund assets: implications for pension fund management," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 263-286, December.
    13. Igor Fedotenkov & Lex Meijdam, 2013. "Crisis and Pension System Design in the EU: International Spillover Effects Via Factor Mobility and Trade," De Economist, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 175-197, June.
    14. Boulier, Jean-Francois & Huang, ShaoJuan & Taillard, Gregory, 2001. "Optimal management under stochastic interest rates: the case of a protected defined contribution pension fund," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 173-189, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bing Xue & Mario Tobias, 2015. "Sustainability in China: Bridging Global Knowledge with Local Action," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-7, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Said Outlioua & Abdesselam Fazouane, 2023. "Which factors affect the sustainability of pension schemes?," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 89-108, February.
    2. Jing You & Miguel Niño‐Zarazúa, 2019. "The Intergenerational Impact of China's New Rural Pension Scheme," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(S1), pages 47-95, December.
    3. Giles, John & Lei, Xiaoyan & Wang, Gewei & Wang, Yafeng & Zhao, Yaohui, 2023. "One country, two systems: evidence on retirement patterns in China," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 188-210, April.
    4. Katarzyna Romaniuk, 2007. "The optimal asset allocation of the main types of pension funds: a unified framework," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 32(2), pages 113-128, December.
    5. Jing You & Miguel Niño-Zarazúa, 2017. "Smoothing or strengthening the 'Great Gatsby curve'?: The intergenerational impact of China's New Rural Pension Scheme," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-199, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Luuk Metselaar & Peter Zwaneveld & Casper Ewijk, 2022. "Reforming Occupational Pensions in the Netherlands: Contract and Intergenerational Aspects," De Economist, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 7-36, February.
    7. Forum Franco Allemand, 2001. "EU Labour Markets," Working Papers 2001-05, CEPII research center.
    8. Noël Bonneuil, 2013. "Early Warning to Insolvency in the Pension Fund: The French Case," Risks, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-13, January.
    9. Xiaohua Chen & Zaigui Yang, 2019. "Stochastically Assessing the Financial Sustainability of Individual Accounts in the Urban Enterprise Employees’ Pension Plan in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-20, June.
    10. Hoevenaars, J. & Ponds, E.H.M., 2008. "Valuation of intergenerational transfers in collective funded pension schemes," Other publications TiSEM 2c1afa01-df29-490e-bc52-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. repec:cep:sticas:/161 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Miroslav Verbič & Rok Spruk, 2019. "Political economy of pension reforms: an empirical investigation," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 171-232, April.
    13. Aaron George, Grech, 2014. "Pension policy design: The core issues," MPRA Paper 53662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Devolder, Pierre & Bosch Princep, Manuela & Dominguez Fabian, Inmaculada, 2003. "Stochastic optimal control of annuity contracts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 227-238, October.
    15. Grech, Aaron George, 2012. "Evaluating the possible impact of pension reforms on future living standards in Europe," MPRA Paper 39851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Hanming Fang & Jin Feng, 2018. "The Chinese Pension System," NBER Working Papers 25088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Francesco MENONCIN, 2001. "How to Manage Inflation Risk in an Asset Allocation Problem : an Algebric Aproximated Solution," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2001035, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    18. Sebastiano Vitali & Vittorio Moriggia, 2021. "Pension fund management with investment certificates and stochastic dominance," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 273-292, April.
    19. Wei Zheng & Zining Liu & Ruo Jia, 2019. "How private sector participation improves retirement preparation: A case from China," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 44(1), pages 123-147, January.
    20. R. Melis & A. Trudda, 2014. "Mixed pension systems sustainability," Working Paper CRENoS 201413, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    21. Aaron George Grech, 2018. "What Makes Pension Reforms Sustainable?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-12, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:6:y:2014:i:6:p:3271-3290:d:36507. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.