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Early Warning to Insolvency in the Pension Fund: The French Case

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  • Noël Bonneuil

    (Institut mational d'études démographiques, 133, bld Davout, 75980, Paris cedex 20, France
    Ecole des hautes études en sciences sociales, 190 Avenue de France, F—75013 Paris, France)

Abstract

The financial equilibrium of pension funds relies on the appropriate computation of retirement benefits, taking account of future payments and discount rates. Short-term errors in the commitment for retirement benefits, ill-suited investment in the stock market, or improper mixture with pay-as-you-go payments have long-term consequences and may lead the pension fund to insolvency. The differential equation governing the current assets shows the respective weights associated with the error on the interest rate, the error on the extra bonus, and the error made in forecasting mortality. These weights are estimated through simulations. A short follow-up is sufficient to estimate the three errors. A threshold for the extra interest rate to be earned on the financial market is given to counter-balance the extra bonus when mortality is forecast correctly.

Suggested Citation

  • Noël Bonneuil, 2013. "Early Warning to Insolvency in the Pension Fund: The French Case," Risks, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-13, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:1:y:2013:i:1:p:1-13:d:22969
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    References listed on IDEAS

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