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Combining Satellite Data and Models to Assess Vulnerability to Climate Change and Its Impact on Food Security in Morocco

Author

Listed:
  • Saloua Rochdane

    (Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Sciences Semlalia, Cadi Ayyad University, B.P. 2390, Boulevard Prince My Abdellah, Marrakesh 40000, Morocco)

  • Lahouari Bounoua

    (Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Code 618, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 618, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA)

  • Ping Zhang

    (Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Code 618, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 618, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
    Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA)

  • Marc L. Imhoff

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute 5825 University Research Court, Suite 1200, College Park, MD 20742, USA)

  • Mohammed Messouli

    (Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Sciences Semlalia, Cadi Ayyad University, B.P. 2390, Boulevard Prince My Abdellah, Marrakesh 40000, Morocco)

  • Mohammed Yacoubi-Khebiza

    (Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Sciences Semlalia, Cadi Ayyad University, B.P. 2390, Boulevard Prince My Abdellah, Marrakesh 40000, Morocco)

Abstract

This work analyzes satellite and socioeconomic data to explore the relationship between food and wood demand and supply, expressed in terms of net primary production (NPP), in Morocco. A vulnerability index is defined as the ratio of demand to supply as influenced by population, affluence, technology and climate indicators. The present situation (1995–2007), as well as projections of demand and supply, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Scenarios A2 and B2, are analyzed for a 2025 horizon. We find that the food NPP demand increased by 34.5%, whereas the wood consumption NPP demand decreased by 19.3% between 1995 and 2007. The annual NPP required to support the population’s food and wood appropriation was 29.73 million tons of carbon (MTC) in 2007, while the landscape NPP production for the same year was 60.24 MTC; indicating that the population appropriates about 50% of the total NPP resources. Both scenarios show increases in demand and decreases in supply. Under A2, it would take more than 1.25 years for terrestrial ecosystems in Morocco to produce the NPP appropriated by populations in one year. This number is 0.70 years under B2. This already high vulnerability for food and wood products is likely to be exacerbated with climate changes and population increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Saloua Rochdane & Lahouari Bounoua & Ping Zhang & Marc L. Imhoff & Mohammed Messouli & Mohammed Yacoubi-Khebiza, 2014. "Combining Satellite Data and Models to Assess Vulnerability to Climate Change and Its Impact on Food Security in Morocco," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-18, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:6:y:2014:i:4:p:1729-1746:d:34711
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Droogers, Peter, 2004. "Adaptation to climate change to enhance food security and preserve environmental quality: example for southern Sri Lanka," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 15-33, April.
    2. Hanjra, Munir A. & Qureshi, M. Ejaz, 2010. "Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 365-377, October.
    3. Marc L. Imhoff & Lahouari Bounoua & Taylor Ricketts & Colby Loucks & Robert Harriss & William T. Lawrence, 2004. "Global patterns in human consumption of net primary production," Nature, Nature, vol. 429(6994), pages 870-873, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Laura Kmoch & Tim Pagella & Matilda Palm & Fergus Sinclair, 2018. "Using Local Agroecological Knowledge in Climate Change Adaptation: A Study of Tree-Based Options in Northern Morocco," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, October.
    2. Aziza Irhza & Laila Nassiri & Moussa El Jarroudi & Fouad Rachidi & Rachid Lahlali & Ghizlane Echchgadda, 2023. "Description of the Gap between Local Agricultural Practices and Agroecological Soil Management Tools in Zerhoun and in the Middle Atlas Areas of Morocco," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Sheriza Mohd Razali & Maizatul Azwa Radzi & Arnaldo Marin & Zaiton Samdin, 2022. "A bibliometric analysis of tropical mangrove forest land use change from 2010 to 2020," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(10), pages 11530-11547, October.
    4. Benabderrazik, K. & Kopainsky, B. & Tazi, L. & Joerin, J. & Six, J., 2021. "Agricultural intensification can no longer ignore water conservation – A systemic modelling approach to the case of tomato producers in Morocco," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).

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