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Using Scenario Visioning and Participatory System Dynamics Modeling to Investigate the Future: Lessons from Minnesota 2050

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  • Laura K. Schmitt Olabisi

    (Department of Community, Agriculture, Recreation, and Resource Studies, Michigan State University, 151 Natural Resources Building, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA)

  • Anne R. Kapuscinski

    (Environmental Studies Program, Dartmouth College, 6182 Steele Hall, Hanover, NH 03755, USA)

  • Kris A. Johnson

    (Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, 325 VoTech Building, 1954 Buford Avenue, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA)

  • Peter B. Reich

    (Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, 115 Green Hall, 1530 Cleveland Avenue N, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA)

  • Brian Stenquist

    (Meeting Challenges, 1022 West Country Road D, St. Paul, MN 55126, USA)

  • Kathryn J. Draeger

    (University of Minnesota Regional Sustainable Development Partnerships, 411 Borlaug Hall, 1991 Upper Buford Circle, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA)

Abstract

Both scenario visioning and participatory system dynamics modeling emphasize the dynamic and uncontrollable nature of complex socio-ecological systems, and the significance of multiple feedback mechanisms. These two methodologies complement one another, but are rarely used together. We partnered with regional organizations in Minnesota to design a future visioning process that incorporated both scenarios and participatory system dynamics modeling. The three purposes of this exercise were: first, to assist regional leaders in making strategic decisions that would make their communities sustainable; second, to identify research gaps that could impede the ability of regional and state groups to plan for the future; and finally, to introduce more systems thinking into planning and policy-making around environmental issues. We found that scenarios and modeling complemented one another, and that both techniques allowed regional groups to focus on the sustainability of fundamental support systems (energy, food, and water supply). The process introduced some creative tensions between imaginative scenario visioning and quantitative system dynamics modeling, and between creating desired futures (a strong cultural norm) and inhabiting the future (a premise of the Minnesota 2050 exercise). We suggest that these tensions can stimulate more agile, strategic thinking about the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura K. Schmitt Olabisi & Anne R. Kapuscinski & Kris A. Johnson & Peter B. Reich & Brian Stenquist & Kathryn J. Draeger, 2010. "Using Scenario Visioning and Participatory System Dynamics Modeling to Investigate the Future: Lessons from Minnesota 2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 2(8), pages 1-21, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:2:y:2010:i:8:p:2686-2706:d:9370
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gerbens-Leenes, P. W. & Nonhebel, S., 2002. "Consumption patterns and their effects on land required for food," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 185-199, August.
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    1. McGookin, Connor & Ó Gallachóir, Brian & Byrne, Edmond, 2021. "Participatory methods in energy system modelling and planning – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Bruce Tonn & Paul Frymier & Jared Graves & Jessa Meyers, 2010. "A Sustainable Energy Scenario for the United States: Year 2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 2(12), pages 1-31, November.
    3. Laura Schmitt Olabisi & Amadou Sidibé, 2023. "Observations from a system dynamics modeling field school in Mali," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 39(1), pages 80-94, January.
    4. Kenzie, Erin S. & Wakeland, Wayne & Jetter, Antonie & Lich, Kristen Hassmiller & Seater, Mellodie & Gunn, Rose & Davis, Melinda M., 2024. "Protocol for an interview-based method for mapping mental models using causal-loop diagramming and realist interviewing," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    5. Jia Shi & Xuesong Guo & Xiangnan Hu, 2019. "Engaging Stakeholders in Urban Traffic Restriction Policy Assessment Using System Dynamics: The Case Study of Xi’an City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-16, July.
    6. Laura Schmitt Olabisi & Saweda Liverpool-Tasie & Louie Rivers & Arika Ligmann-Zielinska & Jing Du & Riva Denny & Sandra Marquart-Pyatt & Amadou Sidibé, 2018. "Using participatory modeling processes to identify sources of climate risk in West Africa," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 23-32, March.
    7. Peter R. Mulvihill & Victoria Kramkowski, 2010. "Extending the Influence of Scenario Development in Sustainability Planning and Strategy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 2(8), pages 1-18, July.
    8. Onyinye Prince Choko & Laura Schmitt Olabisi & Robert Ugochukwu Onyeneke & Stella Nwawulu Chiemela & Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie & Louie Rivers, 2019. "A Resilience Approach to Community-Scale Climate Adaptation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, June.

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