IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i4p1700-d1593934.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Carbon Taxes and Carbon Tax Recovery on the Chinese Economy: A Green Technological Progress Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Weicheng Xu

    (School of Economics, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
    Institute of Marine Development, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China)

  • Yunpeng Zhang

    (School of Economics, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China)

Abstract

Environmental challenges, particularly the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs), pose significant threats to global sustainability. Sustainability requires achieving economic growth and social progress while minimizing environmental degradation, improving resource efficiency, and ensuring long-term ecological balance. At present, many studies have shown that carbon taxes may negatively impact the economy. However, environmental regulations also drive firms to pursue green technological innovations, thereby promoting progress. Previous studies on the regulatory measure of carbon taxes have often overlooked the potential influence of green technological progress on economic outcomes. To address these gaps, our research selected panel data from 30 provinces in China, spanning from 2005 to 2021, and employed the System Generalized Method of Moments (SYS-GMM) to evaluate the effect of carbon taxes on green total factor productivity (GTFP) and green total factor energy efficiency (GTFEE). The regression results, representing the green technological progress coefficient, are then incorporated into the China Energy-Environment-Economic Analysis 2.0 (CEEEA2.0) model. We also add carbon tax recovery to this model in order to analyze their economic impact from the new perspective of green technological progress. The SYS-GMM findings suggest that carbon taxes positively impact GTFP and GTFEE, with impact coefficients of 7.2% and 3.4%, respectively. The CEEEA2.0 model reveals that, without considering green technological progress, the introduction of carbon taxes negatively impacts the economy. However, this impact may turn into a positive one when green technological progress is considered. Additionally, carbon tax recovery measures help mitigate economic losses or enhance gains. Overall, this study offers a fresh perspective for modeling carbon tax implementation and holds both theoretical and practical significance and provides actionable insights into designing carbon tax policies that balance economic growth, social equity, and environmental sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Weicheng Xu & Yunpeng Zhang, 2025. "The Impact of Carbon Taxes and Carbon Tax Recovery on the Chinese Economy: A Green Technological Progress Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-25, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:4:p:1700-:d:1593934
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/4/1700/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/4/1700/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fraser, Iain & Waschik, Robert, 2013. "The Double Dividend hypothesis in a CGE model: Specific factors and the carbon base," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 283-295.
    2. Lv, Chengchao & Shao, Changhua & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2021. "Green technology innovation and financial development: Do environmental regulation and innovation output matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    3. Jin, Wei & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2016. "On the mechanism of international technology diffusion for energy technological progress," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 39-61.
    4. Ojha, Vijay P. & Pohit, Sanjib & Ghosh, Joydeep, 2020. "Recycling carbon tax for inclusive green growth: A CGE analysis of India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Runst, Petrik & Thonipara, Anita, 2020. "Dosis facit effectum why the size of the carbon tax matters: Evidence from the Swedish residential sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Meng, Ming & Qu, Danlei, 2022. "Understanding the green energy efficiencies of provinces in China: A Super-SBM and GML analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    7. Kirsten S. Wiebe & Norihiko Yamano, 2016. "Estimating CO2 Emissions Embodied in Final Demand and Trade Using the OECD ICIO 2015: Methodology and Results," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2016/5, OECD Publishing.
    8. Lovely, Mary & Popp, David, 2011. "Trade, technology, and the environment: Does access to technology promote environmental regulation?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 16-35, January.
    9. Jia, Zhijie & Lin, Boqiang, 2020. "Rethinking the choice of carbon tax and carbon trading in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    10. Govinda R. Timilsina & Yazid Dissou & Michael Toman & Dirk Heine, 2024. "How can a carbon tax benefit developing economies with informality? A CGE analysis for Côte d’Ivoire," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 71-86, January.
    11. Liu, Yu & Lu, Yingying, 2015. "The Economic impact of different carbon tax revenue recycling schemes in China: A model-based scenario analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 96-105.
    12. Adam B. Jaffe & Karen Palmer, 1997. "Environmental Regulation And Innovation: A Panel Data Study," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 610-619, November.
    13. Li Yang, 2024. "Research on the Collaborative Pollution Reduction Effect of Carbon Tax Policies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-23, January.
    14. Lin, Boqiang & Sun, Chuanwang, 2010. "Evaluating carbon dioxide emissions in international trade of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 613-621, January.
    15. Malerba, Daniele & Gaentzsch, Anja & Ward, Hauke, 2021. "Mitigating poverty: The patterns of multiple carbon tax and recycling regimes for Peru," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    16. Gray, Wayne B, 1987. "The Cost of Regulation: OSHA, EPA and the Productivity Slowdown," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 998-1006, December.
    17. Hu, Haisheng & Dong, Wanhao & Zhou, Qian, 2021. "A comparative study on the environmental and economic effects of a resource tax and carbon tax in China: Analysis based on the computable general equilibrium model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    18. Ouyang, Xiaoling & Li, Qiong & Du, Kerui, 2020. "How does environmental regulation promote technological innovations in the industrial sector? Evidence from Chinese provincial panel data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    19. Jia, Zhijie & Lin, Boqiang, 2022. "CEEEA2.0 model: A dynamic CGE model for energy-environment-economy analysis with available data and code," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    20. R. D. Banker & A. Charnes & W. W. Cooper, 1984. "Some Models for Estimating Technical and Scale Inefficiencies in Data Envelopment Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(9), pages 1078-1092, September.
    21. Assaad Ghazouani & Wanjun Xia & Mehdi Ben Jebli & Umer Shahzad, 2020. "Exploring the Role of Carbon Taxation Policies on CO 2 Emissions: Contextual Evidence from Tax Implementation and Non-Implementation European Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-16, October.
    22. Cao, Jing & Dai, Hancheng & Li, Shantong & Guo, Chaoyi & Ho, Mun & Cai, Wenjia & He, Jianwu & Huang, Hai & Li, Jifeng & Liu, Yu & Qian, Haoqi & Wang, Can & Wu, Libo & Zhang, Xiliang, 2021. "The general equilibrium impacts of carbon tax policy in China: A multi-model comparison," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    23. Charnes, A. & Cooper, W. W. & Rhodes, E., 1978. "Measuring the efficiency of decision making units," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 2(6), pages 429-444, November.
    24. Timilsina,Govinda R. & Dissou,Yazid & Toman, Mike & Heine,Dirk, 2021. "Carbon Tax in an Economy with Informality : A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis for Cote d’Ivoire," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9710, The World Bank.
    25. Wen, Shiyan & Jia, Zhijie, 2022. "The energy, environment and economy impact of coal resource tax, renewable investment, and total factor productivity growth," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    26. Tone, Kaoru, 2001. "A slacks-based measure of efficiency in data envelopment analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 498-509, May.
    27. Gilbert E. Metcalf, 2019. "On the Economics of a Carbon Tax for the United States," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 405-484.
    28. Duan, Hong-Bo & Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2014. "Optimal carbon taxes in carbon-constrained China: A logistic-induced energy economic hybrid model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 345-356.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Qian & Ren, Shuming, 2022. "Evaluation of green technology innovation efficiency in a regional context: A dynamic network slacks-based measuring approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    2. Xu, Le & Yang, Lili & Li, Ding & Shao, Shuai, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of heterogeneous environmental standards on green technology innovation: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    3. Wen, Shiyan & Jia, Zhijie, 2022. "The energy, environment and economy impact of coal resource tax, renewable investment, and total factor productivity growth," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Ruomeng Zhou & Yunsheng Zhang, 2023. "Measurement of Urban Green Total Factor Productivity and Analysis of Its Temporal and Spatial Evolution in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-32, June.
    5. Liu, Na & Yao, Xilong & Wan, Fang & Han, Yunfei, 2023. "Are tax revenue recycling schemes based on industry-differentiated carbon tax conducive to realizing the “double dividend”?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    6. Weijiang Liu & Tingting Liu & Yangyang Li & Min Liu, 2021. "Recycling Carbon Tax under Different Energy Efficiency Improvements: A CGE Analysis of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-17, April.
    7. Jia, Zhijie & Lin, Boqiang, 2022. "CEEEA2.0 model: A dynamic CGE model for energy-environment-economy analysis with available data and code," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    8. Li, Yangfan & Zhang, Xiaoyun, 2023. "Recycling scheme of carbon pricing for inclusive decarbonization and energy transition: A recursive computable general equilibrium analysis in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    9. Shenhai Huang & Chao Du & Xian Jin & Daini Zhang & Shiyan Wen & Yu’an Wang & Zhenyu Cheng & Zhijie Jia, 2022. "The Boundary of Porter Hypothesis: The Energy and Economic Impact of China’s Carbon Neutrality Target in 2060," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-18, December.
    10. Franz R. Hahn, 2007. "Determinants of Bank Efficiency in Europe. Assessing Bank Performance Across Markets," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 31499.
    11. Alperovych, Yan & Hübner, Georges & Lobet, Fabrice, 2015. "How does governmental versus private venture capital backing affect a firm's efficiency? Evidence from Belgium," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 508-525.
    12. Ashrafi, Ali & Seow, Hsin-Vonn & Lee, Lai Soon & Lee, Chew Ging, 2013. "The efficiency of the hotel industry in Singapore," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 31-34.
    13. Davtalab-Olyaie, Mostafa & Begen, Mehmet A. & Yang, Zijiang & Asgharian, Masoud, 2024. "Incentivization in centrally managed systems: Inconsistencies resolution," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    14. Badunenko, Oleg & Galeotti, Marzio & Hunt, Lester C., 2021. "Better to grow or better to improve? Measuring environmental efficiency in OECD countries with a Stochastic Environmental Kuznets Frontier," FEEM Working Papers 316226, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    15. Yongqi Feng & Haolin Zhang & Yung-ho Chiu & Tzu-Han Chang, 2021. "Innovation efficiency and the impact of the institutional quality: a cross-country analysis using the two-stage meta-frontier dynamic network DEA model," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(4), pages 3091-3129, April.
    16. Xu, Qi & Liu, Kui, 2024. "Hero or Devil: A comparison of different carbon tax policies for China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    17. Yu-Chuan Chen & Yung-Ho Chiu & Tzu-Han Chang & Tai-Yu Lin, 2023. "Sustainable Development, Government Efficiency, and People’s Happiness," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 1549-1578, April.
    18. Jin XU & Panagiotis ZERVOPOULOS & Zhenhua QIAN & Gang CHENG, 2012. "A Universal Solution For Units - Invariance In Data Envelopment Analysis," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 121-128.
    19. Junlong Li & Chuangneng Cai & Feng Zhang, 2020. "Assessment of Ecological Efficiency and Environmental Sustainability of the Minjiang-Source in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-15, June.
    20. Marques, Rui Cunha & Simões, Pedro, 2010. "Measuring the influence of congestion on efficiency in worldwide airports," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 334-336.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:4:p:1700-:d:1593934. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.