IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i4p1686-d1593670.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Australia Will Meet Its 2030 Emissions Target—Mapping the Optimal Emissions Pathway

Author

Listed:
  • Meng Wang

    (School of Economics, Shanghai University, 99 Shangda Road, Shanghai 200444, China)

  • Licheng Shen

    (Yichun Meteorological Administration of Jiangxi Province, Yichun 336028, China)

  • Haolan Liao

    (School of Economics, Shanghai University, 99 Shangda Road, Shanghai 200444, China)

Abstract

Australia submitted its updated nationally determined contribution (NDC) in 2022 and increased the ambition of its 2030 target, committing to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 43% below 2005 levels by 2030. A new set of policies was proposed in its NDC, but the potential effectiveness of these policies should be assessed. This research has applied an environmentally extended input–output analysis combined with linear programming and set six types of scenarios to assess the maximum GHG emission reductions in 2030. The six scenarios include “business as usual”, different levels of sector-differentiated growth, a low-carbon electricity mix, a reduction in the emissions intensity of the mining sector, an increase in the electricity efficiency of intermediate inputs, and the implementation of all measures. Results show that implementing all measures simultaneously can achieve Australia’s 2030 emission targets, with total emissions in 2030 being 317.62 Mt CO 2 -e, which is a 39.08% reduction compared to the BAU. This study contributes to understanding changes in scenarios for the development of carbon emissions to achieve Australian NDCs.

Suggested Citation

  • Meng Wang & Licheng Shen & Haolan Liao, 2025. "How Australia Will Meet Its 2030 Emissions Target—Mapping the Optimal Emissions Pathway," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-19, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:4:p:1686-:d:1593670
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/4/1686/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/4/1686/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Strazzabosco, A. & Gruenhagen, J.H. & Cox, S., 2022. "A review of renewable energy practices in the Australian mining industry," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 135-143.
    2. Broadbent, Gail & Allen, Cameron & Wiedmann, Thomas & Metternicht, Graciela, 2022. "The role of electric vehicles in decarbonising Australia’s road transport sector: modelling ambitious scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    3. Liang, Junyi & Wang, Shaojian & Liao, Yuantao & Feng, Kuishuang, 2024. "Carbon emissions embodied in investment: Assessing emissions reduction responsibility through multi-regional input-output analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    4. Hosein, Ada Shereen & Whale, Jonathan & Simsek, Yeliz & Urmee, Tania, 2023. "Exploring energy policy scenarios to transition to a low carbon economy by 2050: A case study on the Northern Territory of Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    5. Zhong, Sheng & Goh, Tian & Su, Bin, 2022. "Patterns and drivers of embodied carbon intensity in international exports: The role of trade and environmental policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    6. Born, Peter, 1996. "Input-output analysis: Input of energy, CO2, and work to produce goods," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 217-221, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shi, Chaofan & Qin, Guangyu & Tan, Qinliang & Yang, Jiahui & Chen, Xi & Liu, Qi & Zhang, Tianjin & Kammen, Daniel M., 2024. "Simulation of hydrogen transportation development path and carbon emission reduction path based on LEAP model - A case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    2. Inga Heiland & Patrik Šváb, 2024. "Estimating Gravity Equations for Trade in Value Added: A Structural Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 11480, CESifo.
    3. Cotterman, Turner & Fuchs, Erica R.H. & Whitefoot, Kate S. & Combemale, Christophe, 2024. "The transition to electrified vehicles: Evaluating the labor demand of manufacturing conventional versus battery electric vehicle powertrains," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    4. Nwani, Chinazaekpere & Usman, Ojonugwa & Okere, Kingsley Ikechukwu & Bekun, Festus Victor, 2023. "Technological pathways to decarbonisation and the role of renewable energy: A study of European countries using consumption-based metrics," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    5. Aparisi-Cerdá, I. & Ribó-Pérez, D. & García-Melón, M. & D’Este, P. & Poveda-Bautista, R., 2024. "Drivers and barriers to the adoption of decentralised renewable energy technologies: A multi-criteria decision analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    6. Sun, Ya-Fang & Su, Bin & Zhong, Sheng & He, Junyi & Yu, Shiwei, 2024. "Determinants of Aggregated Embodied Carbon Intensity in Global Bilateral Exports by Firm Heterogeneity," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    7. Sheng, Xuerou & Chen, Leping & Liu, Mengyue & Wang, Qingsong & Ma, Qiao & Zuo, Jian & Yuan, Xueliang, 2025. "Input-output models for carbon accounting: A multi-perspective analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    8. Yang, Wen & Ma, Jianhua & Fan, Ao & Zhang, Jinyi & Pan, Yanchun, 2024. "Effectiveness of policies for electric commercial vehicle adoption and emission reduction in the logistics industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    9. Jing Zhou & Chao Chen & Zhengxing He & Jiaming Tang, 2025. "Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in the Planting Industry: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-27, March.
    10. Ma, Dan & Tang, Jiaqi & Jiang, Xuemei, 2023. "Effects of digital global value chain participation on CO2 emissions embodied in digital exports: New evidence from PSTR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    11. Liu, Yanxin & Li, Huajiao & Ren, Huijun & Jiang, Hongdian & Ren, Bo & Ma, Ning & Chen, Zhensong & Zhong, Weiqiong & Ulgiati, Sergio, 2025. "Shared responsibility for carbon emission reduction in worldwide “steel- electric vehicle” trade within a sustainable industrial chain perspective," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    12. Qian Lv & Tao Lv & Cong Li & Cheng Wang & Jiguang Shi & Jing Xie, 2024. "The Impact Mechanism of the Low-Carbon Pilot Policy on Urban Carbon Emissions in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-19, October.
    13. Li, Guozhu & Ding, Chenjun & Zhao, Naini & Wei, Jiaxing & Guo, Yang & Meng, Chong & Huang, Kailiang & Zhu, Rongxin, 2024. "Research on a novel photovoltaic power forecasting model based on parallel long and short-term time series network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    14. Lucía Bolea & Adrián Espinosa‐Gracia & Sofía Jimenez, 2024. "So close, no matter how far: A spatial analysis of CO2 emissions considering geographic and economic distances," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 544-566, February.
    15. Haiqiao Wang & Li Shang & Decai Tang & Zhijiang Li, 2024. "Research Themes, Evolution Trends, and Future Challenges in China’s Carbon Emission Studies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-22, March.
    16. Denenoudji Djetoyom & Tian Gang & Alladoumbaye Ngueilbaye & John Yata Raymond Lubari, 2024. "Assessing Potential and Impact Factors Driving Chadian Gum Arabic International Trade Based on the Augmented Gravity Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-27, November.
    17. Dong, Zhaoyingzi & Xiao, Yue, 2024. "Carbon emissions trading policy and climate injustice: A study on economic distributional impacts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    18. Chen, G.Q. & Wu, X.F., 2017. "Energy overview for globalized world economy: Source, supply chain and sink," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 735-749.
    19. Mehrdad Ghahramani & Daryoush Habibi & Seyyedmorteza Ghamari & Asma Aziz, 2024. "Addressing Uncertainty in Renewable Energy Integration for Western Australia’s Mining Sector: A Robust Optimization Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-35, November.
    20. Safi, Adnan & Haseeb, Muhammad & Islam, Madeeha & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "Can sustainable resource management overcome geopolitical risk?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:4:p:1686-:d:1593670. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.