Effectiveness of policies for electric commercial vehicle adoption and emission reduction in the logistics industry

Electric commercial vehicles (ECVs) offer a promising solution to reduce carbon emissions, but barriers like high purchase costs, limited range, long charging times, and battery degradation hinder their adoption. This research develops a mathematical model to explore the impact of government policies, specifically carbon tax policy and the cap-and-trade mechanism, with or without purchase subsidy, on the mixed fleet configuration of electric and internal combustion commercial vehicles. Through a comparative analysis based on a real case in Shenzhen, this research provides insights into the impact of policies on ECV adoption and emission reduction. The findings indicate that higher tax rates and carbon prices effectively promote ECV adoption, while the carbon emission quota does not. When choosing policies, the government should consider its situation and objectives. Combining cap-and-trade mechanisms with purchase subsidies is the most effective for ECV adoption and emission reduction, assuming financially feasible. Alternatively, implementing a carbon tax policy without purchase subsidy is more practical. The cap-and-trade mechanism in the long term supports the phase-out of purchase subsidies and contributes to sustainable economic and environmental development. What's more, the findings provide guides for the government to determine an appropriate industry regulator factor when allocating quotas for the logistics industry.