IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i3p920-d1574506.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Examining the Environmental Phillips Curve Hypothesis in the Ten Most Polluting Emerging Economies: Economic Dynamics and Sustainability

Author

Listed:
  • Goktug Sahin

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ankara Haci Bayram Veli University, 06500 Ankara, Türkiye)

  • Mustafa Naimoglu

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Bingol University, 12000 Bingol, Türkiye)

  • Ismail Kavaz

    (Department of Labor Economics and Industrial Relations, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Firat University, 23119 Elazig, Türkiye)

  • Afsin Sahin

    (Department of Finance and Banking, Faculty of Financial Sciences, Ankara Haci Bayram Veli University, 06500 Ankara, Türkiye)

Abstract

In the context of the Environmental Phillips Curve hypothesis, this study investigates the impact of unemployment on environmental quality in ten emerging economies with the highest carbon emissions, as identified in the International Monetary Fund’s 2015 World Economic Outlook. The primary aim of this study is to estimate the effects of income, natural gas usage, renewable energy usage, unemployment, and population size on carbon dioxide emissions in the selected countries. The study utilizes panel data from 1990 to 2019 and employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) to evaluate the short- and long-run relationships between these variables. Findings obtained using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator indicate that both income and population size have a significant positive impact on air pollution levels, whereas natural gas consumption and the use of renewable energy correlate with a decrease in emissions. The results support a negative correlation between unemployment and environmental degradation, aligning with the EPC. The error correction term suggests that the process returns to equilibrium in about 2.8 years. The findings are validated through robustness tests utilizing the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) estimators. This study offers important insights for environmental policymaking in these emerging economies, emphasizing the importance of sustainable development strategies and green energy adoption.

Suggested Citation

  • Goktug Sahin & Mustafa Naimoglu & Ismail Kavaz & Afsin Sahin, 2025. "Examining the Environmental Phillips Curve Hypothesis in the Ten Most Polluting Emerging Economies: Economic Dynamics and Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:3:p:920-:d:1574506
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/3/920/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/3/920/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. Jani Kinnunen & Irina Georgescu & Ionuț Nica, 2024. "Evaluating the Environmental Phillips Curve Hypothesis in the STIRPAT Framework for Finland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-24, May.
    3. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    5. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    6. Umar Farooq & Mohammad Mahtab Alam & Bilal Haider Subhani & Mosab I. Tabash & Zilola Shamansurova, 2024. "Non-Linear Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Green Innovation: Evidence from BRICS Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-21, November.
    7. Cole, M.A. & Rayner, A.J. & Bates, J.M., 1997. "The environmental Kuznets curve: an empirical analysis," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 401-416, November.
    8. Rothman, Dale S., 1998. "Environmental Kuznets curves--real progress or passing the buck?: A case for consumption-based approaches," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 177-194, May.
    9. Cole, Matthew A., 2004. "Trade, the pollution haven hypothesis and the environmental Kuznets curve: examining the linkages," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 71-81, January.
    10. Arrow, Kenneth & Bolin, Bert & Costanza, Robert & Dasgupta, Partha & Folke, Carl & Holling, C.S. & Jansson, Bengt-Owe & Levin, Simon & Mäler, Karl-Göran & Perrings, Charles & Pimentel, David, 1996. "Economic growth, carrying capacity, and the environment," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 104-110, February.
    11. Costanza, Robert, 1995. "Economic growth, carrying capacity, and the environment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 89-90, November.
    12. Vincent, Jeffrey R., 1997. "Testing for environmental Kuznets curves within a developing country," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 417-431, November.
    13. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
    15. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    16. Wagner, Gernot, 2010. "Energy content of world trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7710-7721, December.
    17. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Unruh, G. C. & Moomaw, W. R., 1998. "An alternative analysis of apparent EKC-type transitions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 221-229, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Javier Capó Parrilla, 2009. "Curva de Kuznets ambiental: Evidencia para Europa," CRE Working Papers (Documents de treball del CRE) 2009/3, Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB ·"Sa Nostra").
    2. Kaika, Dimitra & Zervas, Efthimios, 2013. "The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) theory. Part B: Critical issues," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1403-1411.
    3. Dinda, Soumyananda, 2004. "Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 431-455, August.
    4. Onafowora, Olugbenga A. & Owoye, Oluwole, 2014. "Bounds testing approach to analysis of the environment Kuznets curve hypothesis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 47-62.
    5. Farhani, Sahbi & Mrizak, Sana & Chaibi, Anissa & Rault, Christophe, 2014. "The environmental Kuznets curve and sustainability: A panel data analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 189-198.
    6. Myo Myo Htike & Anil Shrestha & Makoto Kakinaka, 2022. "Investigating whether the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis holds for sectoral CO2 emissions: evidence from developed and developing countries," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(11), pages 12712-12739, November.
    7. Atwi, Majed & Barberán, Ramón & Mur, Jesús & Angulo, Ana, 2018. "CO2 Kuznets Curve Revisited: From Cross-Sections to Panel Data Models," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 40, pages 169-196.
    8. Tiba, Sofien & Frikha, Mohamed, 2019. "The controversy of the resource curse and the environment in the SDGs background: The African context," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 437-452.
    9. Lenzen, Manfred & Wier, Mette & Cohen, Claude & Hayami, Hitoshi & Pachauri, Shonali & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2006. "A comparative multivariate analysis of household energy requirements in Australia, Brazil, Denmark, India and Japan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 181-207.
    10. Roca, Jordi & Padilla, Emilio & Farre, Mariona & Galletto, Vittorio, 2001. "Economic growth and atmospheric pollution in Spain: discussing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 85-99, October.
    11. Jie He, 2007. "Is the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis valid for developing countries? A survey," Cahiers de recherche 07-03, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    12. Valeria Costantini & Chiara Martini, 2010. "A Modified Environmental Kuznets Curve for sustainable development assessment using panel data," International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(1/2), pages 84-122.
    13. Sabuj Kumar Mandal & Devleena Chakravarty, 2017. "Role of energy in estimating turning point of Environmental Kuznets Curve: an econometric analysis of the existing studies," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 19(2), pages 387-401, October.
    14. He, Jie & Richard, Patrick, 2010. "Environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 in Canada," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(5), pages 1083-1093, March.
    15. Managi, Shunsuke, 2006. "Are there increasing returns to pollution abatement? Empirical analytics of the Environmental Kuznets Curve in pesticides," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 617-636, June.
    16. Al Mamun, Md. & Sohag, Kazi & Hannan Mia, Md. Abdul & Salah Uddin, Gazi & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2014. "Regional differences in the dynamic linkage between CO2 emissions, sectoral output and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-11.
    17. Cristian Barra & Roberto Zotti, 2018. "Investigating the non-linearity between national income and environmental pollution: international evidence of Kuznets curve," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 20(1), pages 179-210, January.
    18. Theodore Panayotou, 2000. "Economic Growth and the Environment," CID Working Papers 56A, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    19. Ezzati, Majid & Singer, Burton H. & Kammen, Daniel M., 2001. "Towards an Integrated Framework for Development and Environment Policy: The Dynamics of Environmental Kuznets Curves," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1421-1434, August.
    20. Ren, Shenggang & Yuan, Baolong & Ma, Xie & Chen, Xiaohong, 2014. "International trade, FDI (foreign direct investment) and embodied CO2 emissions: A case study of Chinas industrial sectors," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 123-134.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:3:p:920-:d:1574506. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.