Analysis of the Environmental and Economic Impacts of Industrial Restructuring and Identification of Key Sectors Based on an Industrial Correlation Perspective

Systematically assessing the impact of industrial restructuring on carbon emissions and economic growth from the industrial correlation perspective holds great significance for realizing sustainable economic development. By extending the input–output analysis, this study developed a comprehensive assessment framework to evaluate the impacts of industrial restructuring on energy-related carbon emissions and economic growth within a multi-sectoral system from the industrial correlation perspective. An indicator system was established to identify key sectors for different industrial restructuring strategies. Taking Guangdong as a case, the results show that (1) the indirect impact of industrial restructuring in sectors such as equipment manufacturing and services on carbon emissions is more significant than that on economic growth, and the carbon intensity of its indirect impact is much larger than that of its direct impact; (2) industrial restructuring indirectly affects energy-related carbon emissions or economic growth mainly through a limited number of linked sectors, whereas the main linked pathways through which sector-specific industrial restructuring indirectly affects carbon emissions and economic growth are not consistent; (3) from the industrial correlation perspective, environmental benefits are higher for the service sector and lower for the construction sector; and (4) in industrial restructuring, the metal-processing sector is identified as a key sector for pursuing low-carbon transition, while the non-metallic mineral products sector is identified as a key sector for controlling production scale. The findings and framework can inform regional decisions on industrial restructuring and carbon reduction from the industrial correlation perspective.