Study on the Spatiotemporal Evolution Relationship Between Ecological Resilience and Land Use Intensity in Hebei Province and Scenario Simulation

The ecological health of Hebei Province is critical to the sustainable development of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. However, the increasing intensity of land use in recent years has placed significant pressure on local ecosystems, making it essential to understand how land use changes affect ecological resilience across different regions and time periods. This study takes Hebei Province as the research area and selects four time points—1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020—to systematically evaluate the spatiotemporal variations in ecological resilience and land use intensity using indicators such as the water resource supply, climate regulation, hydrological regulation, biodiversity, the landscape pattern index, and land use types. This study employs spatial analysis methodologies, including the spatial autocorrelation model and the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model, to systematically analyze spatial clustering patterns, spatial heterogeneity, and influencing mechanisms. Scenario simulations are also conducted to predict ecological resilience trends in 2030 under a sustainable development scenario. The results indicate that (1) over the past 30 years, both ecological resilience and land use intensity in Hebei Province have generally increased, with notable spatial disparities among cities. (2) Moreover, a significant negative correlation exists between ecological resilience and land use intensity, with the GWR model revealing pronounced spatial heterogeneity. The impact of land use intensity on ecological resilience is relatively minor in highly urbanized central and southern regions, while northern and northwestern regions are more sensitive to changes, highlighting the need for better coordination between land use planning and ecological protection. (3) Finally, scenario simulations predict a slight overall decline in ecological resilience by 2030, with central and southern cities projected to experience the largest decreases, while some northern cities are expected to see modest improvements. These findings underscore the importance of regionally differentiated land use management and ecological protection strategies. This study provides scientific evidence and planning recommendations to improve ecological resilience and environmental protection in Hebei Province. At the same time, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of how land use dynamics influence ecological resilience. The methodologies and findings presented in this study can also be applied to guide sustainable development planning in other rapidly urbanizing areas, providing a valuable framework for addressing regions facing similar ecological challenges.