Ecological Sensitivity of the Mata Allo Sub-Watershed, South Sulawesi: A Spatial Analysis Using Principal Component Analysis

Watersheds are critical ecosystems that provide essential services, but they face increasing threats from deforestation, land use changes, and climate variability. The Mata Allo Sub-Watershed, which is characterized by steep topography and high rainfall, is particularly vulnerable to erosion, landslides, and habitat loss, necessitating robust conservation strategies. This study used principal component analysis (PCA) to assess ecological sensitivity, focusing on slope, rainfall, vegetation density, and land cover. The PCA results identified land cover as the most influential positive factor in F1 (loading value: 0.588), increasing sensitivity due to human-induced land use changes, while rainfall contributed most negatively (−0.638) by potentially mitigating extreme ecological risks. These contrasting roles underscore the complexity of interactions shaping watershed sensitivity. Slope strongly influenced F2 (−0.795), explaining 26.48% of the variance and highlighting the critical role of steep slopes in exacerbating erosion risks. Vegetation density in F3 (−0.679) and rainfall in F4 (−0.724) played significant roles in stabilizing soil and mitigating ecological risks, emphasizing their importance in reducing watershed sensitivity. The “Extremely Sensitive” class covers 48.79% of the watershed, primarily in areas with steep slopes and sparse vegetation, while “High Sensitivity” areas occupy 34.93%. Projections for 2032 suggest a reduction in “Extremely Sensitive” zones to 41.00%, reflecting improvements from targeted management interventions. These findings provide a foundation for promoting sustainable watershed management, enhancing climate resilience, and supporting biodiversity conservation efforts in vulnerable regions.