Green Fiscal and Tax Policies in China: An Environmental Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

Implementing green fiscal and tax policies for reducing emissions and pollution without negatively impacting economic growth remains a challenge. We aimed to determine whether environmental protection and economic growth can both be attained under a green fiscal and tax policy. Specifically, we created a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to explore the environmental, economic, and welfare impacts of green fiscal and tax policies. Additionally, a welfare analysis based on an environmental DSGE (E-DSGE) model was performed. We found that (1) raising the environmental or energy tax rate was beneficial for reducing emissions and environmental pollution. However, this approach inhibited economic growth, an outcome not conducive to improving welfare. (2) Increasing the subsidy rate for emission reduction not only incentivized businesses to reduce emissions but also improved economic growth and welfare. (3) The emission reduction mechanisms of environmental tax policies, energy tax policies, and subsidy policies are different. Among them, the environmental tax policy and the energy tax policy both reduce pollution by forcing businesses to increase their emission reduction efforts, but the former is a tax on pollution emissions, while the latter is a tax on energy consumption. However, emission reduction subsidy policies incentivize companies to increase their emission reduction efforts and reduce pollution emissions by alleviating their financial burden. (4) Increasing government spending on environmental remediation could promote economic growth. However, considering that this does not motivate companies to reduce emissions, increasing their share will lead to a reduction in emission reduction subsidies, ultimately negatively impacting social welfare. (5) An environmental tax would cause greater losses in welfare than an energy tax. These findings will enable policymakers to optimize expenditures and tax systems.