IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2024i17p7429-d1465878.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Research on the Inhibitory Effect of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on Carbon Leakage

Author

Listed:
  • Tian Lan

    (School of Economics, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Kunming 650221, China)

  • Ran Tao

    (School of Economics, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Kunming 650221, China)

Abstract

Associated with more ambitious targets for reducing emissions, the European Union (EU) plans to implement the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) fully in 2026, aiming to reduce carbon leakage and competitiveness concerns by imposing tariffs on carbon-intensive imports, which is expected to significantly impact its trade partners. Existing research has focused on CBAM’s impact on macroeconomic indicators but has insufficiently addressed its effects on global and regional carbon leakage, especially in non-EU countries like China. This research offers a detailed analysis of industry-specific leakage rates and integrates both global and regional impacts by employing the dynamic recursive GTAP-E general equilibrium model to numerically simulate CBAM’s inhibitory effect on carbon leakage under different carbon tariff scenarios, while also exploring the synergistic effects of anti-leakage policies in non-EU countries. Our simulations indicate the following: (1) CBAM effectively inhibits carbon leakage, with greater inhibition observed at higher tax rates and with the expansion of covered industries. (2) Establishing China’s domestic carbon market pricing can further reduce regional carbon leakage rates. Implementing global export carbon tax policies will significantly diminish the risk of global carbon leakage. (3) The implementation of CBAM is projected to reduce China’s total exports to the EU, though this loss will be partly offset by trade diversion effects. Carbon-intensive industries are more adversely affected in the short term, while all industries except fossil fuels face inevitable long-term negative impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Tian Lan & Ran Tao, 2024. "Research on the Inhibitory Effect of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on Carbon Leakage," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-21, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:17:p:7429-:d:1465878
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/17/7429/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/17/7429/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christoph Böhringer & Jared C. Carbone & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2016. "The Strategic Value of Carbon Tariffs," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 28-51, February.
    2. Weitzel, Matthias & Hübler, Michael & Peterson, Sonja, 2012. "Fair, optimal or detrimental? Environmental vs. strategic use of border carbon adjustment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S2), pages 198-207.
    3. Stuart Evans & Michael A. Mehling & Robert A. Ritz & Paul Sammon, 2021. "Border carbon adjustments and industrial competitiveness in a European Green Deal," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 307-317, March.
    4. He, Jianwu & Li, Shantong, 2022. "The impact of EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on Chinas economy," Conference papers 333491, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Sergey V. Paltsev, 2001. "The Kyoto Protocol: Regional and Sectoral Contributions to the Carbon Leakage," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 53-80.
    6. Dong, Yanli & Ishikawa, Masanobu & Hagiwara, Taiji, 2015. "Economic and environmental impact analysis of carbon tariffs on Chinese exports," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 80-95.
    7. Winchester Niven & Paltsev Sergey & Reilly John M, 2011. "Will Border Carbon Adjustments Work?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, January.
    8. St�phanie Monjon & Philippe Quirion, 2011. "A border adjustment for the EU ETS: reconciling WTO rules and capacity to tackle carbon leakage," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 1212-1225, September.
    9. Beck, Ulrik R. & Kruse-Andersen, Peter K. & Stewart, Louis B., 2023. "Carbon leakage in a small open economy: The importance of international climate policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    10. Gabriela Michalek & Reimund Schwarze, 2015. "Carbon leakage: pollution, trade or politics?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 17(6), pages 1471-1492, December.
    11. Copeland, Brian R. & Taylor, M. Scott, 2005. "Free trade and global warming: a trade theory view of the Kyoto protocol," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 205-234, March.
    12. Ambec, Stefan & Yang, Yuting, 2024. "Climate policy with electricity trade," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    13. Wu, Libo & Zhou, Ying & Qian, Haoqi, 2022. "Global actions under the Paris agreement: Tracing the carbon leakage flow and pursuing countermeasures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    14. Tan, Xiujie & Liu, Yu & Cui, Jingbo & Su, Bin, 2018. "Assessment of carbon leakage by channels: An approach combining CGE model and decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 535-545.
    15. Lewis C. King & Jeroen C. J. M. Bergh, 2021. "Potential carbon leakage under the Paris Agreement," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-19, April.
    16. Michael Keen & Ian Parry & James Roaf, 2022. "Border carbon adjustments: rationale, design and impact," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 209-234, September.
    17. Burniaux, Jean-March & Truong, Truong P., 2002. "Gtap-E: An Energy-Environmental Version Of The Gtap Model," Technical Papers 28705, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    18. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7940 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Jiarui Zhong & Jiansuo Pei, 2024. "Carbon border adjustment mechanism: a systematic literature review of the latest developments," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 228-242, February.
    20. Tarr, David G. & Kuznetsov, Dmitrii E. & Overland, Indra & Vakulchuk, Roman, 2023. "Why carbon border adjustment mechanisms will not save the planet but a climate club and subsidies for transformative green technologies may," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    21. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10122 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Samuel Kortum & David Weisbach, 2017. "The Design of Border Adjustments for Carbon Prices," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 70(2), pages 421-446, June.
    23. Clora, Francesco & Yu, Wusheng & Corong, Erwin, 2023. "Alternative carbon border adjustment mechanisms in the European Union and international responses: Aggregate and within-coalition results," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    24. Peters, Glen P., 2008. "From production-based to consumption-based national emission inventories," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 13-23, March.
    25. Hiau Looi Kee & Hong Ma & Muthukumara Mani, 2010. "The Effects of Domestic Climate Change Measures on International Competitiveness," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(6), pages 820-829, June.
    26. Gerlagh, Reyer & Kuik, Onno, 2014. "Spill or leak? Carbon leakage with international technology spillovers: A CGE analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 381-388.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pan, Wenqi & Kim, Man-Keun & Ning, Zhuo & Yang, Hongqiang, 2020. "Carbon leakage in energy/forest sectors and climate policy implications using meta-analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    2. Perdana, Sigit & Vielle, Marc, 2022. "Making the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism acceptable and climate friendly for least developed countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    3. Wilman, Elizabeth A., 2019. "Market Redirection Leakage in the Palm Oil Market," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 226-234.
    4. Clora, Francesco & Yu, Wusheng, 2022. "GHG emissions, trade balance, and carbon leakage: Insights from modeling thirty-one European decarbonization pathways towards 2050," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    5. Sakai, Marco & Barrett, John, 2016. "Border carbon adjustments: Addressing emissions embodied in trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 102-110.
    6. Mauricio Mesquita Moreira & Marcelo Dolabella, 2024. "Does trade policy help or hinder global warming? A case study of Latin America and the Caribbean," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 779-805, February.
    7. Sigit Perdana & Marc Vielle, 2023. "Carbon border adjustment mechanism in the transition to net-zero emissions: collective implementation and distributional impacts," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 25(3), pages 299-329, July.
    8. Wu, Libo & Zhou, Ying & Qian, Haoqi, 2022. "Global actions under the Paris agreement: Tracing the carbon leakage flow and pursuing countermeasures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    9. Clora, Francesco & Yu, Wusheng & Corong, Erwin, 2023. "Alternative carbon border adjustment mechanisms in the European Union and international responses: Aggregate and within-coalition results," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    10. Gabriela Michalek & Reimund Schwarze, 2015. "Carbon leakage: pollution, trade or politics?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 17(6), pages 1471-1492, December.
    11. Branger, Frédéric & Quirion, Philippe, 2014. "Would border carbon adjustments prevent carbon leakage and heavy industry competitiveness losses? Insights from a meta-analysis of recent economic studies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 29-39.
    12. Bellora, Cecilia, 2020. "Carbon Border Adjustment and Alternatives," Conference papers 333210, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. Gabriel Felbermayr & Sonja Peterson & Joschka Wanner, 2022. "The Impact of Trade and Trade Policy on the Environment and the Climate. A Review," WIFO Working Papers 649, WIFO.
    14. Elliott, Joshua & Fullerton, Don, 2014. "Can a unilateral carbon tax reduce emissions elsewhere?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 6-21.
    15. Marc Baudry & Alienor Cameron, 2022. "The case for a Carbon Border Adjustment: Where do economists stand?," Working Papers hal-04159819, HAL.
    16. Alexeeva-Talebi, Victoria & Böhringer, Christoph & Löschel, Andreas & Voigt, Sebastian, 2012. "The value-added of sectoral disaggregation: Implications on competitive consequences of climate change policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S2), pages 127-142.
    17. Wissal Morchid & Eduardo A. Haddad & Luc Savard, 2024. "Measuring the Cost of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on Moroccan Exports," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-19, June.
    18. Kathy Baylis & Don Fullerton & Daniel H. Karney, 2014. "Negative Leakage," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 51-73.
    19. George Mörsdorf, 2021. "A Simple Fix for Carbon Leakage? Assessing the Environmental Effectiveness of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment," ifo Working Paper Series 350, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    20. Schinko, Thomas & Bednar-Friedl, Birgit & Steininger, Karl W. & Grossmann, Wolf D., 2014. "Switching to carbon-free production processes: Implications for carbon leakage and border carbon adjustment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 818-831.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:17:p:7429-:d:1465878. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.