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Where Are We Going Now? The Current and Future Distributions of the Monk Parakeet ( Myiopsitta monachus ) and Eurasian Collared Dove ( Streptopelia decaocto ) in a Megalopolis

Author

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  • Jorge E. Ramírez-Albores

    (Departamento de Botánica, Universidad Autónoma Agraria Antonio Narro, Saltillo 25315, Mexico)

  • Luis A. Sánchez-González

    (Museo de Zoología “Alfonso L. Herrera”, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México 04510, Mexico)

  • David A. Prieto-Torres

    (Laboratorio de Biodiversidad y Cambio Global (LABIOCG), Facultad de Estudios Superiores Iztacala, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Los Reyes Iztacala, Tlalnepantla 54090, Mexico)

  • Adolfo G. Navarro-Sigüenza

    (Museo de Zoología “Alfonso L. Herrera”, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México 04510, Mexico
    Unidad Multidisciplinaria de Docencia e Investigación, Facultad de Ciencias, Campus Juriquilla, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Juriquilla 76230, Mexico)

Abstract

The monk parakeet ( Myiopsitta monachus ) and the Eurasian collared dove ( Streptopelia decaocto ) are two of the most prevalent invasive species globally due to their high dispersal ability. Since these birds were first recorded (1999 for the monk parakeet and 2013 for Eurasian collared dove) in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA), both species have spread rapidly throughout the area. However, the impacts of global climate changes on the distribution patterns of these species remain poorly studied across the MCMA. Therefore, based on an ecological niche modeling approach, we assessed the expansion and potential invasion of both species in this megalopolis using current and future climate projections (year 2050). Our results estimated that the current suitable areas are 5564 km 2 for the monk parakeet and 5489 km 2 for the Eurasian collared dove, covering ~70% of the study area, suggesting a rapidly invading species, as expected. We observed a slight decrease (up to 24%) in both species in future climate scenarios, but our models estimated that the sizes of the suitable areas would remain stable. We found that the range expansion of these species in the megalopolis may be largely attributed to their propensity for jump dispersion and short-time niche expansion ability. Our findings allow for a better understanding of the factors contributing to the range expansion of the monk parakeet and the Eurasian collared dove in Mexico and can better inform the monitoring guidelines for and assessments of these invasive species.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge E. Ramírez-Albores & Luis A. Sánchez-González & David A. Prieto-Torres & Adolfo G. Navarro-Sigüenza, 2024. "Where Are We Going Now? The Current and Future Distributions of the Monk Parakeet ( Myiopsitta monachus ) and Eurasian Collared Dove ( Streptopelia decaocto ) in a Megalopolis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-20, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:16:p:7071-:d:1458495
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Camille Parmesan & Gary Yohe, 2003. "A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 37-42, January.
    2. Peterson, A. Townsend & Papeş, Monica & Soberón, Jorge, 2008. "Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 63-72.
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