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Analyzing Internal and External Factors in Livestock Supply Forecasting Using Machine Learning: Sustainable Insights from South Korea

Author

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  • Tserenpurev Chuluunsaikhan

    (Department of Computer Science, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju 28644, Republic of Korea)

  • Jeong-Hun Kim

    (Bigdata Research Institute, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju 28644, Republic of Korea)

  • So-Hyun Park

    (Department of Computer Engineering, Dongguk University WISE, Gyeongju 38066, Republic of Korea)

  • Aziz Nasridinov

    (Department of Computer Science, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju 28644, Republic of Korea)

Abstract

The supply of livestock products depends on many internal and external factors. Omitting any one factor can make it difficult to describe the market patterns. So, forecasting livestock indexes such as prices and supplies is challenging due to the effect of unknown factors. This paper proposes a Stacking Forest Ensemble method (SFE-NET) to forecast pork supply by considering both internal and external factors, thereby contributing to sustainable pork production. We first analyze the internal factors to explore features related to pork supply. External factors such as weather conditions, gas prices, and disease information are also collected from different sources. The combined dataset is from 2016 to 2022. Our SFE-NET method utilizes Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost as members and a neural network as the meta-method. We conducted seven experiments for daily, weekly, and monthly pork supply using different sets of factors, such as internal, internal and external, and selected. The results showed the following findings: (a) The proposed method achieved Coefficient of Determination scores between 84% and 91% in short and long periods, (b) the external factors increased the performance of forecasting methods by about 2% to 12%, and (c) the proposed stacking ensemble method outperformed other comparative methods by 1% to 18%. These improvements in forecasting accuracy can help promote more sustainable pork production by enhancing market stability and resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Tserenpurev Chuluunsaikhan & Jeong-Hun Kim & So-Hyun Park & Aziz Nasridinov, 2024. "Analyzing Internal and External Factors in Livestock Supply Forecasting Using Machine Learning: Sustainable Insights from South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-21, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:16:p:6907-:d:1454597
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Krzysztof Drachal & Michał Pawłowski, 2024. "Forecasting Selected Commodities’ Prices with the Bayesian Symbolic Regression," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-56, March.
    2. Jie Pang & Juan Yin & Guangchang Lu & Shimei Li, 2023. "Supply and Demand Changes, Pig Epidemic Shocks, and Pork Price Fluctuations: An Empirical Study Based on an SVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-16, August.
    3. Emediegwu, Lotanna E. & Ubabukoh, Chisom L., 2023. "Re-examining the impact of annual weather fluctuations on global livestock production," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(PA).
    4. Karel Šrédl & Marie Prášilová & Lucie Severová & Roman Svoboda & Michal Štěbeták, 2021. "Social and Economic Aspects of Sustainable Development of Livestock Production and Meat Consumption in the Czech Republic," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-23, January.
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