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A Methodology for Forecasting the KPIs of a Region’s Development: Case of the Russian Arctic

Author

Listed:
  • Yuriy Zhukovskiy

    (Educational Research Center for Digital Technologies, Saint Petersburg Mining University, 199106 Saint Petersburg, Russia)

  • Pavel Tsvetkov

    (Department of Economics, Organization and Management, Saint Petersburg Mining University, 2 21st Line, 199106 Saint Petersburg, Russia)

  • Anastasia Koshenkova

    (Department of Environmental Geology, Saint Petersburg Mining University, 199106 Saint Petersburg, Russia)

  • Ivan Skvortsov

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Saint Petersburg Mining University, 199106 Saint Petersburg, Russia)

  • Iuliia Andreeva

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Saint Petersburg Mining University, 199106 Saint Petersburg, Russia)

  • Valeriya Vorobeva

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Saint Petersburg Mining University, 199106 Saint Petersburg, Russia)

Abstract

Forecasting the development of regions is one of the most challenging tasks of modern economics. The quality of any forecast is determined by the methodology used. Accordingly, criticism of existing forecasts is largely connected to their methodological approaches. In this paper, a multi-level approach to forecasting the development of the region is proposed, starting with the definition of the key performance indicators and ending with the assessment of various scenarios. The study was conducted on the example of the Russian Arctic, divided into three technological zones, with three scenarios of the development for each (negative, base, positive). The application of the proposed methodology allowed for modeling the development of the region until 2035. The results show that the Russian Arctic has a huge difference in the achievability of different goals, e.g., 98% of the electricity supply targets are achievable in a baseline scenario, while only 52% are achievable in a set of “navigation” targets. The proposed methodology can be useful for diving into the details of regional forecasts, such as the impact of key companies in a region or the influence of international politics.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuriy Zhukovskiy & Pavel Tsvetkov & Anastasia Koshenkova & Ivan Skvortsov & Iuliia Andreeva & Valeriya Vorobeva, 2024. "A Methodology for Forecasting the KPIs of a Region’s Development: Case of the Russian Arctic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-25, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:15:p:6597-:d:1448143
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yuriy Zhukovskiy & Anastasia Koshenkova & Valeriya Vorobeva & Daniil Rasputin & Roman Pozdnyakov, 2023. "Assessment of the Impact of Technological Development and Scenario Forecasting of the Sustainable Development of the Fuel and Energy Complex," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-23, March.
    2. V. E. Seliverstov & L. V. Melnikova & E. A. Kolomak & V. A. Kryukov & V. I. Suslov & N. I. Suslov, 2019. "Spatial Development Strategy of Russia: Expectations and Realities," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 155-163, April.
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