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Exploring the Pathways of Achieving Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Targets in the Provinces of the Yellow River Basin of China

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  • Jiaan Jiang

    (College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210000, China)

  • Shulin Chen

    (College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210000, China)

Abstract

Achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is an intrinsic requirement for sustainable development. The industrial structure primarily characterized by the chemical and energy industries poses a hindrance to the attainment of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals in the provinces of the Yellow River Basin of China. Predicting the time of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and exploring the pathways of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is an urgent issue for the government to address. The STIRPAT and InVEST models were used for the carbon emissions and carbon sequestration estimation in the nine provinces and regions of the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2060. The results show that the study area will realize carbon peaking in 2030 under the baseline scenario, with the carbon emission of 4146 million tons. Under the high-emission scenario, the study area will realize carbon peaking in 2035, with the carbon emission of 4372 million tons. Under the low-carbon energy-saving scenario, the study area will realize carbon peaking in 2025, with the carbon emission of 3909 million tons. The entire study area cannot achieve carbon neutrality in 2060 under the three scenarios. Under the baseline and high-emission scenarios, only Qinghai and Sichuan can realize carbon neutrality by 2060, and under the low-carbon energy-saving scenario, Sichuan, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu will achieve carbon neutrality on time. This research indicates that attaining carbon peaking and carbon neutrality can be accomplished by implementing strategies such as encouraging the growth of clean energy, managing energy usage, refining the industrial structure, and strengthening the ecosystem’s carbon sink.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiaan Jiang & Shulin Chen, 2024. "Exploring the Pathways of Achieving Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Targets in the Provinces of the Yellow River Basin of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-20, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:15:p:6553-:d:1447082
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. York, Richard & Rosa, Eugene A. & Dietz, Thomas, 2003. "STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 351-365, October.
    2. Smriti Mallapaty, 2020. "How China could be carbon neutral by mid-century," Nature, Nature, vol. 586(7830), pages 482-483, October.
    3. Xu, Zhongwen & Yao, Liming & Liu, Qiaoling & Long, Yin, 2019. "Policy implications for achieving the carbon emission reduction target by 2030 in Japan-Analysis based on a bilevel equilibrium model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
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