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100 Years of Land-Use and Land-Cover Data: What Has Been the Effect of Spatial Planning in Coastal Land-Use and Land-Cover Change?

Author

Listed:
  • Raquel Faria de Deus

    (Interdisciplinary Centre of Social Sciences (CICS.NOVA), School of Social Sciences and Humanities (NOVA FCSH), Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Avenida de Berna, 26-C, 1069-061 Lisbon, Portugal)

  • José António Tenedório

    (História, Territórios e Comunidades, History, Territories and Communities, Hub at NOVA FCSH for the Centre for Functional Ecology—Science for People & the Planet, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Social Sciences and Humanities (NOVA FCSH), Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Avenida de Berna, 26-C, 1069-061 Lisbon, Portugal)

  • Denise Pumain

    (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, 191 rue Saint Jacques, 75005 Paris, France)

  • Jorge Rocha

    (Centre of Geographical Studies (CEG), Associate Laboratory TERRA, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning (IGOT), Universidade de Lisboa, 1600-276 Lisbon, Portugal)

  • Margarida Pereira

    (Interdisciplinary Centre of Social Sciences (CICS.NOVA), School of Social Sciences and Humanities (NOVA FCSH), Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Avenida de Berna, 26-C, 1069-061 Lisbon, Portugal)

Abstract

The Sustainable Development Goals require us to rethink spatial planning policies’ effectiveness. This article proposes a reproducible method for assessing the effect of past planning practices and simulating future land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes with a Cellular Automata model. The originality of our approach is to systematically compare observed changes in LULC with the planning rules in force over almost a century of evolution. A quasi-exhaustive database was constructed at a very fine spatial resolution for the municipality of Portimão (Southern Portugal), including the location and changes of LULC categories, and the planning rules of the corresponding time period on nine dates between 1947 and 2018. The quantified measurement of the actual effect of planning rules enables us to identify other determinants of the evolution. Findings reveal that the policies established by the local government—which aimed to foster well-planned comprehensive urban areas—were not as effective as intended. The quantified discrepancies between planning recommendations and observed evolution help to simulate which LULC scenarios could be designed to reach the expected result in future planning policies. Our assessment method could be applied in other urban and tourist regions where land artificialization exerts strong pressure on the environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Raquel Faria de Deus & José António Tenedório & Denise Pumain & Jorge Rocha & Margarida Pereira, 2023. "100 Years of Land-Use and Land-Cover Data: What Has Been the Effect of Spatial Planning in Coastal Land-Use and Land-Cover Change?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-20, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:9:p:7636-:d:1140647
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    References listed on IDEAS

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