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Analysis of intentional lethal violent crimes: A sliding windows approach

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  • da Silva Filho, A.M.
  • Zebende, G.F.
  • Guedes, E.F.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the fluctuations in time series of intentional lethal violent crime rates in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil from 2012 to 2018. The modeling proposed was performed with two main strategies: first, the descriptive of the series under study was defined using the sliding window approach, as determined by autocorrelation from Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), also with sliding window. Results of this research indicate that the series of DFA exponents, depending on the window (365 or 1000 days) and period, have oscillated between persistent, antipersistent and out of memory. Descriptive analysis identified reduction in the average crime rates from 2013 and a behavioral pattern among other moments. These findings will serve as another methodological proposal for monitoring, control and management of criminal indicators and research on them.

Suggested Citation

  • da Silva Filho, A.M. & Zebende, G.F. & Guedes, E.F., 2021. "Analysis of intentional lethal violent crimes: A sliding windows approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 567(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:567:y:2021:i:c:s0378437120309511
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2020.125653
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guedes, E.F. & da Silva Filho, A.M. & Zebende, G.F., 2021. "Detrended multiple cross-correlation coefficient with sliding windows approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 574(C).
    2. Santos, E.C.O. & Guedes, E.F. & Zebende, G.F. & da Silva Filho, A.M., 2022. "Autocorrelation of wind speed: A sliding window approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 607(C).
    3. Ferreira, Paulo & Quintino, Derick & Wundervald, Bruna & Dionísio, Andreia & Aslam, Faheem & Cantarinha, Ana, 2021. "Is Brazilian music getting more predictable? A statistical physics approach for different music genres," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 583(C).

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