IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i2p1692-d1037260.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty on Green Bond Volatility: An Empirical Investigation Based on TVP-VAR Models

Author

Listed:
  • Jiasheng Yu

    (School of Business, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, Suzhou 215009, China)

  • Maojun Zhang

    (School of Business, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, Suzhou 215009, China)

  • Ruoyu Liu

    (School of Economics and Management, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China)

  • Guodong Wang

    (Discipline Inspection and Supervision Room, Snd Group, Suzhou 215009, China)

Abstract

With the recent climate changes, investors and policy-makers are paying close attention to the green bond market. This study intends to analyze the dynamic effects of shock transmission between climate policy uncertainty and the green bond market and to offer some new perspectives on analysis of green bond volatility over the previous years. To investigate time-varying effects of climate policy uncertainty on green bond market volatility, we applied a TVP-VAR model. And the impact of three important time points is tested, which are the Paris Association convening in December 2015, the 2017 annual Report on Policies and Actions of China on Climate Change in October 2017 and the “double carbon” policy in September 2020. The finding is that: (1) This impact of climate policy uncertainty on the volatility of the green bond market is time-varying, with short-term overreactions or underreactions as well as medium and long-term inversions. (2) This impact is also time-varying at different time points and has a certain degree of sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiasheng Yu & Maojun Zhang & Ruoyu Liu & Guodong Wang, 2023. "Dynamic Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty on Green Bond Volatility: An Empirical Investigation Based on TVP-VAR Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-17, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:2:p:1692-:d:1037260
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/2/1692/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/2/1692/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Volatility jumps: The role of geopolitical risks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 247-258.
    2. Bitto, Angela & Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia, 2019. "Achieving shrinkage in a time-varying parameter model framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 75-97.
    3. Jebabli, Ikram & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices: An empirical investigation based on TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 66-98.
    4. Zerbib, Olivier David, 2019. "The effect of pro-environmental preferences on bond prices: Evidence from green bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 39-60.
    5. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Gabauer, David & Dwumfour, Richard Adjei, 2022. "Dynamic spillover effects among green bond, renewable energy stocks and carbon markets during COVID-19 pandemic: Implications for hedging and investments strategies," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    6. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Naifar, Nader & Nasreen, Samia & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2022. "Dependence structure and dynamic connectedness between green bonds and financial markets: Fresh insights from time-frequency analysis before and during COVID-19 pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    7. Liu, Min, 2022. "The driving forces of green bond market volatility and the response of the market to the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 288-309.
    8. Quan-Hoang Vuong, 2021. "The semiconducting principle of monetary and environmental values exchange," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 284-290.
    9. E. Somanathan & Rohini Somanathan & Anant Sudarshan & Meenu Tewari, 2021. "The Impact of Temperature on Productivity and Labor Supply: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(6), pages 1797-1827.
    10. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Zhang, Yupu, 2020. "Do shareholders benefit from green bonds?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    11. Michael Barnett & William Brock & Lars Peter Hansen & Harrison Hong, 2020. "Pricing Uncertainty Induced by Climate Change," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1024-1066.
    12. Darwin Choi & Zhenyu Gao & Wenxi Jiang, 2020. "Attention to Global Warming," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1112-1145.
    13. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 107-142, November.
    14. Saeed, Tareq & Bouri, Elie & Alsulami, Hamed, 2021. "Extreme return connectedness and its determinants between clean/green and dirty energy investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    15. Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Firm-level political risk and asymmetric volatility," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-1.
    16. Robert J. Barro, 2015. "Environmental Protection, Rare Disasters and Discount Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(325), pages 1-23, January.
    17. Petr Jakubik & Sibel Uguz, 2021. "Impact of green bond policies on insurers: evidence from the European equity market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 381-393, April.
    18. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2020. "Price connectedness between green bond and financial markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 25-38.
    19. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    20. Kanamura, Takashi, 2020. "Are green bonds environmentally friendly and good performing assets?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    21. Reboredo, Juan C., 2018. "Green bond and financial markets: Co-movement, diversification and price spillover effects," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 38-50.
    22. Tian, Hao & Long, Shaobo & Li, Zixuan, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of climate policy uncertainty, infectious diseases-related uncertainty, crude oil volatility, and geopolitical risks on green bond prices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    23. Qinghua Wang & Yaning Zhou & Li Luo & Junping Ji, 2019. "Research on the Factors Affecting the Risk Premium of China’s Green Bond Issuance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-14, November.
    24. Lee H. Seltzer & Laura Starks & Qifei Zhu, 2022. "Climate Regulatory Risk and Corporate Bonds," NBER Working Papers 29994, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Wang, Jiazhen & Chen, Xin & Li, Xiaoxia & Yu, Jing & Zhong, Rui, 2020. "The market reaction to green bond issuance: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    26. Jin, Jiayu & Han, Liyan & Wu, Lei & Zeng, Hongchao, 2020. "The hedging effect of green bonds on carbon market risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    27. Linh Pham, 2016. "Is it risky to go green? A volatility analysis of the green bond market," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 263-291, October.
    28. Huynh, Thanh D. & Xia, Ying, 2021. "Climate Change News Risk and Corporate Bond Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(6), pages 1985-2009, September.
    29. Hong, Harrison & Li, Frank Weikai & Xu, Jiangmin, 2019. "Climate risks and market efficiency," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 265-281.
    30. Olivier David Zerbib, 2019. "The effect of pro-environmental preferences on bond prices: Evidence from green bonds," Post-Print halshs-02008641, HAL.
    31. Painter, Marcus, 2020. "An inconvenient cost: The effects of climate change on municipal bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 468-482.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yuanfeng Hu & Yixiang Tian & Luping Zhang, 2023. "Green Bond Pricing and Optimization Based on Carbon Emission Trading and Subsidies: From the Perspective of Externalities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Doğan, Buhari & Trabelsi, Nader & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Ghosh, Sudeshna, 2023. "Dynamic dependence and causality between crude oil, green bonds, commodities, geopolitical risks, and policy uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 36-62.
    2. Giuseppe Cortellini & Ida Claudia Panetta, 2021. "Green Bond: A Systematic Literature Review for Future Research Agendas," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-29, December.
    3. Pham, Linh & Cepni, Oguzhan, 2022. "Extreme directional spillovers between investor attention and green bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 186-210.
    4. Lin, Boqiang & Su, Tong, 2022. "Green bond vs conventional bond: Outline the rationale behind issuance choices in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Román Ferrer & Rafael Benítez & Vicente J. Bolós, 2021. "Interdependence between Green Financial Instruments and Major Conventional Assets: A Wavelet-Based Network Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-20, April.
    6. Roy Kouwenberg & Chenglong Zheng, 2023. "A Review of the Global Climate Finance Literature," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-32, January.
    7. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2023. "What do we know about the price spillover between green bonds and Islamic stocks and stock market indices?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    8. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Farid, Saqib & Ferrer, Román & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2021. "Comparative efficiency of green and conventional bonds pre- and during COVID-19: An asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    9. Arif, Muhammad & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Farid, Saqib & Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2022. "Diversifier or more? Hedge and safe haven properties of green bonds during COVID-19," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    10. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Ghardallou, Wafa & Umar, Zaghum, 2022. "Is greenness an optimal hedge for sectoral stock indices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    11. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Doğan, Buhari & Ghosh, Sudeshna, 2023. "Sustainable debt and gas markets: A new look using the time-varying wavelet-windowed cross-correlation approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    12. Cepni, Oguzhan & Demirer, Riza & Pham, Linh & Rognone, Lavinia, 2023. "Climate uncertainty and information transmissions across the conventional and ESG assets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. Yuan, Xi & Qin, Meng & Zhong, Yifan & Nicoleta-Claudia, Moldovan, 2023. "Financial roles in green investment based on the quantile connectedness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    14. Zirek, Duygu & Unsal, Omer, 2023. "Green bonds: Do investors benefit from third-party certification?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    15. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oteng-Abayie, Eric Fosu, 2023. "An analysis of the time-varying causality and dynamic correlation between green bonds and US gas prices," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PA).
    16. Arif, Muhammad & Hasan, Mudassar & Alawi, Suha M. & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr, 2021. "COVID-19 and time-frequency connectedness between green and conventional financial markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    17. Kocaarslan, Baris, 2023. "Funding liquidity risk and the volatility of U.S. municipal green bonds during the COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    18. Yadav, Mikesh Prasad & Pandey, Asheesh & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Arya, Vandana & Mishra, Nandita, 2023. "Volatility spillover of green bond with renewable energy and crypto market," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 928-939.
    19. Juan Camilo Mejía-Escobar & Juan David González-Ruiz & Giovanni Franco-Sepúlveda, 2021. "Current State and Development of Green Bonds Market in the Latin America and the Caribbean," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-25, September.
    20. Umar, Zaghum & Abrar, Afsheen & Hadhri, Sinda & Sokolova, Tatiana, 2023. "The connectedness of oil shocks, green bonds, sukuks and conventional bonds," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:2:p:1692-:d:1037260. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.